Air traffic system using procedural trajectory prediction

1. A method comprising:

determining a predicted trajectory for a target aircraft, based at least in part on a comparison of information received on a recent trajectory of the target aircraft with a set of procedural trajectory information, wherein the procedural trajectory information includes trajectories for joining a traffic pattern and trajectories for departing the traffic pattern;

determining whether a violation of protected airspace is predicted between the target aircraft and an ownship, based at least in part on the predicted trajectory for the target aircraft and a predicted trajectory for the ownship; and

generating an alert output in response to determining that the violation of protected airspace is predicted.

2. The method of claim 1 , further comprising:

qualifying the information received on the recent trajectory of the target aircraft with respect to the set of procedural trajectory information, prior to determining the predicted trajectory for the target aircraft; and

determining the predicted trajectory for the target aircraft based also at least in part on the qualifying of the information received on the recent trajectory of the target aircraft with respect to the set of procedural trajectory information.

3. The method of claim 2 , wherein qualifying the information received on the recent trajectory of the target aircraft with respect to the set of procedural trajectory information comprises:

applying one or more criteria regarding at least one flight variable of the target aircraft, wherein the at least one flight variable is selected from among a position of the target aircraft, a vector velocity of the target aircraft, an altitude of the target aircraft, and a rate of change of altitude of the target aircraft; and

selecting a predicted procedural trajectory for the target aircraft based at least in part on the at least one flight variable of the target aircraft meeting one or more conditions specific to the predicted procedural trajectory for the one or more criteria.

4. The method of claim 3 , further comprising determining the predicted trajectory for a target aircraft by at least propagating a trajectory of the target aircraft from the recent trajectory in accordance with a selected predicted trajectory based on the one or more criteria.

5. The method of claim 1 , further comprising receiving the information on the recent trajectory of the target aircraft, prior to determining the predicted trajectory for the target aircraft, wherein receiving the information on the recent trajectory of the target aircraft comprises receiving information from one or more automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B) reports from the target aircraft.

6. The method of claim 1 , further comprising determining the predicted trajectory for the ownship, prior to determining whether a violation of protected airspace is predicted between the target aircraft and the ownship.

7. The method of claim 6 , wherein determining the predicted trajectory for the ownship comprises determining the predicted trajectory based at least in part on a comparison of information on a recent trajectory of the ownship with the set of procedural trajectory information.

8. The method of claim 1 , wherein the set of procedural trajectory information comprises at least one of data or executable instructions encoding at least a portion of an Airport/Facility Directory (A/FD).

9. The method of claim 1 , wherein the set of procedural trajectory information comprises at least one of data or executable instructions encoding one or more of:

at least a portion of one or more airport diagrams;

at least a portion of a commercial navigation database or commercial navigation data store; and

an autonomous airport configuration recognition system.

10. The method of claim 1 , further comprising generating an alert based at least in part on the alert output.

11. The method of claim 10 , wherein generating the alert comprises generating at least one of:

an audio alert signal for output via an audio system; or

a video alert signal for output via a video display.

12. A system comprising:

a trajectory propagation unit configured to determine a predicted trajectory for a target aircraft, based at least in part on a comparison of information received on a recent trajectory of the target aircraft with a set of procedural trajectory information, wherein the procedural trajectory information includes trajectories for joining a traffic pattern and trajectories for departing the traffic pattern;

a conflict search engine configured to determine whether a violation of protected airspace is predicted between the target aircraft and an ownship, based at least in part on the predicted trajectory for the target aircraft and a predicted trajectory for the ownship; and

an output node configured to generate an alert output in response to determining that the violation of protected airspace is predicted.

13. The system of claim 12 , wherein the trajectory propagation unit is further configured to:

qualify the information received on the recent trajectory of the target aircraft with respect to the set of procedural trajectory information, prior to determining the predicted trajectory for the target aircraft; and

determine the predicted trajectory for the target aircraft based also at least in part on the qualifying of the information received on the recent trajectory of the target aircraft with respect to the set of procedural trajectory information.

14. The system of claim 13 , wherein the trajectory propagation unit is configured to qualify the information by at least:

applying one or more criteria regarding at least one flight variable of the target aircraft, wherein the at least one flight variable is selected from among a position of the target aircraft, a vector velocity of the target aircraft, an altitude of the target aircraft, and a rate of change of altitude of the target aircraft, and

selecting a predicted procedural trajectory for the target aircraft based at least in part on the at least one flight variable of the target aircraft meeting one or more conditions specific to the predicted procedural trajectory for the one or more criteria.

15. The system of claim 14 , wherein the trajectory propagation unit is further configured to determine the predicted trajectory for the target aircraft by at least propagating a trajectory of the target aircraft from the recent trajectory in accordance with a selected predicted trajectory based on the one or more criteria.

16. The system of claim 12 , wherein the set of procedural trajectory information comprises at least one of data or executable instructions encoding one or more of:

at least a portion of one or more airport diagrams;

at least a portion of a commercial navigation database or commercial navigation data store; and

an autonomous airport configuration recognition system.

17. A device comprising:

one or more memory devices; and

one or more processors communicatively coupled to the one or more memory devices and configured to:

determine a predicted trajectory for a target aircraft, based at least in part on a comparison of information received on a recent trajectory of the target aircraft with a set of procedural trajectory information, wherein the procedural trajectory information includes trajectories for joining a traffic pattern and trajectories for departing the traffic pattern;

determine whether a violation of protected airspace is predicted between the target aircraft and an ownship, based at least in part on the predicted trajectory for the target aircraft and a predicted trajectory for the ownship; and

generate an alert output in response to determining that the violation of protected airspace is predicted.

18. The device of claim 17 , wherein the one or more processors are configured to:

qualify the information received on the recent trajectory of the target aircraft with respect to the set of procedural trajectory information, prior to determining the predicted trajectory for the target aircraft; and

determine the predicted trajectory for the target aircraft based also at least in part on the qualifying of the information received on the recent trajectory of the target aircraft with respect to the set of procedural trajectory information.

19. The device of claim 18 , wherein the one or more processors are configured to qualify the information by at least:

applying one or more criteria regarding at least one flight variable of the target aircraft, wherein the at least one flight variable is selected from among a position of the target aircraft, a vector velocity of the target aircraft, an altitude of the target aircraft, and a rate of change of altitude of the target aircraft, and

selecting a predicted procedural trajectory for the target aircraft based at least in part on the at least one flight variable of the target aircraft meeting one or more conditions specific to the predicted procedural trajectory for the one or more criteria.

20. The device of claim 17 , wherein the set of procedural trajectory information comprises at least one of data or executable instructions encoding one or more of:

at least a portion of one or more airport diagrams;

at least a portion of a commercial navigation database or commercial navigation data store; and

an autonomous airport configuration recognition system.