Disturbance estimating apparatus, method, and computer program

1. A disturbance estimation apparatus, comprising:

a navigation data receiver configured to acquire navigation data including actual position and time of a ship on a water surface;

a thrust data receiver configured to receive thrust data indicating a magnitude and a direction of a thrust force of the ship; and

processing circuitry configured to:

estimate a predicted position of the ship under an absence of a disturbance condition at a predetermined time in the future using a kinetic model of a body of the ship based on the navigation data and the thrust data;

determine disturbance data including a drift direction of the ship drifted by an external force based on a difference between the predicted position estimated by the kinetic model and an actual position of the ship at the predetermined time;

estimate the predicted position of the ship at the predetermined time using the kinetic model of the body of the ship under the disturbance caused by a tidal current based on information from a tidal current meter; and

determine the disturbance data including the drift direction of the ship drifted by wind based on the difference between the predicted position estimated by the kinetic model of the body of the ship and the actual position of the ship at the predetermined time.

2. The disturbance estimation apparatus of claim 1 , wherein the processing circuitry is further configured to:

estimate the predicted position of the ship at the predetermined time using the kinetic model of the body of the ship under a disturbance caused by wind based on information from an anemometer; and

determine the disturbance data including the drift direction of the ship drifted by the tidal current based on the difference between the predicted position estimated by the kinetic model of the body of the ship and the actual position of the ship at the predetermined time.

3. The disturbance estimation apparatus of claim 1 , further comprising:

a global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receiver configured to receive the actual position of the ship.

4. The disturbance estimation apparatus of claim 1 , further comprising:

a display configured to display:

a chart including a region where the ship navigates; and

the disturbance data including the drift direction at a display position on the chart, wherein

the display position corresponds to a location at which the disturbance data is determined.

5. The disturbance estimation apparatus of claim 1 , wherein

the disturbance data further includes a drift speed of the ship drifted by the external force, and

the processing circuitry is further configured to:

determine the drift speed, based on dividing a distance between the predicted position and the actual position by a time required to reach to the actual position.

6. The disturbance estimation apparatus of claim 5 , further comprising:

a display configured to display:

a chart including a region where the ship navigates; and

the disturbance data including the drift direction and the drift speed of the disturbance at a display position on the chart, wherein

the display position corresponds to a location at which the disturbance data is determined.

7. The disturbance estimation apparatus of claim 1 , wherein the processing circuitry is further configured to:

determine the disturbance data when the magnitude and the direction of the thrust force of the ship are substantially constant during a specific time interval.

8. The disturbance estimation apparatus of claim 1 wherein the processing circuitry is further configured to:

determine the disturbance data when each of a direction and a speed of the ship is substantially constant during a specific time interval.

9. A disturbance estimation apparatus, comprising:

a navigation data receiver configured to acquire navigation data including actual position and time of a ship on a water surface;

a thrust data receiver configured to receive thrust data indicating a magnitude and a direction of a thrust force of the ship;

a basic data receiver configured to acquire basic data including at least one of a time, tidal current information, and wind information at a specific time, and

processing circuitry configured to:

estimate a predicted position of the ship under an absence of a disturbance condition at a predetermined time in the future by inputting the navigation data and the thrust data into a first trained model, wherein the first trained model outputs the predicted position at the predetermined time in the future based on an input including the navigation data and the thrust data;

determine disturbance data including a drift direction of the ship drifted by an external force based on a difference between the predicted position estimated by the first trained model and an actual position of the ship at the predetermined time;

estimate a predicted drifting position of the ship drifted by the disturbance during navigation, by inputting the basic data, the predicted position, and the predetermined time into a second trained model which outputs the predicted drifting position.

10. The disturbance estimation apparatus of claim 9 , further comprising:

a ship information receiver configured to acquire ship information including at least one of a size, a weight, a draft, and a shape of the ship, wherein

the processing circuitry is further configured to:

input the ship information into the first trained model such that the first trained model outputs the predicted position according to the ship information.

11. The disturbance estimation apparatus of claim 9 , wherein the processing circuitry is further configured to:

acquire measurement information measured by a tidal current meter and an anemometer;

determine a presence or an absence of the disturbance based on the measurement information; and

train the first trained model using corrected data as training data to output a corrected predicted position estimated by a retrained first trained model based on the actual position of the ship at the predetermined time when the absence of the disturbance is determined.

12. The disturbance estimation apparatus of claim 11 , further comprising:

a ship information receiver configured to acquire ship information including at least one of a size, a weight, a draft, and a shape of the ship, wherein

the processing circuitry is further configured to:

input the ship information into the first trained model such that the first trained model outputs the predicted position at the predetermined time according to the ship information.

13. The disturbance estimation apparatus of claim 12 , wherein:

the basic data includes the time, tidal current information, and wind information at the specific time.

14. The disturbance estimation apparatus of claim 13 , wherein the processing circuitry is further configured to:

estimate the disturbance data when each of a direction and a speed of the ship is substantially constant during a specific time interval.

15. A disturbance estimation method, comprising:

receiving navigation data including an actual position and time of a ship on a water surface;

receiving thrust data indicating a magnitude and a direction of a thrust force of the ship;

estimating a predicted position of the ship under an absence of a disturbance condition at a predetermined time in the future using a kinetic model of a body of the ship based on the navigation data and the thrust data;

determining disturbance data including a drift direction of the ship drifted by an external force based on a difference between the predicted position estimated by the kinetic model and an actual position of the ship at the predetermined time;

estimating the predicted position of the ship at the predetermined time using the kinetic model of the body of the ship under the disturbance caused by a tidal current based on information from a tidal current meter; and

determining the disturbance data including the drift direction of the ship drifted by wind based on the difference between the predicted position estimated by the kinetic model of the body of the ship and the actual position of the ship at the predetermined time.

16. A disturbance estimation method, comprising:

receiving navigation data including an actual position and time of a ship on a water surface;

receiving thrust data indicating a magnitude and a direction of a thrust force of the ship;

acquiring basic data including at least one of a time, tidal current information, and wind information at a specific time;

estimating a predicted position of the ship under an absence of a disturbance condition at a predetermined time in the future by inputting the navigation data and the thrust data into a first trained model, wherein the first trained model outputs the predicted position at the predetermined time in the future based on an input including the navigation data and the thrust data;

determining disturbance data including a drift direction of the ship drifted by an external force based on a difference between the predicted position estimated by the first trained model and an actual position of the ship at the predetermined time; and

estimate a predicted drifting position of the ship drifted by the disturbance during navigation, by inputting the basic data, the predicted position, and the predetermined time into a second trained model which outputs the predicted drifting position.