Processes and systems for predicting biological species invasions
Methods and systems are disclosed for predicting species invasions. Native species occurrence information and native environmental information are received. At least one ecological niche model is formulated based on the native species occurrence information and the native environmental information. Target environmental information corresponding to an alternative geography is received. The ecological niche model is projected onto the alternative geography to predict characteristics of an invasion of the species.
1. A computer-implemented method of predicting species invasions, the method comprising:
receiving native species occurrence information; receiving native environmental information;
formulating at least one ecological niche model based on the native species occurrence information and the native environmental information;
receiving target environmental information corresponding to an alternative geography; and
projecting the ecological niche model onto the alternative geography to predict characteristics of an invasion of the species.
2. The method as set forth in claim 1 , wherein the native species occurrence information includes primary point occurrence information.
3. The method as set forth in claim 2 , wherein the primary point occurrence information includes direct evidence of species' presence at a particular location.
4. The method as set forth in claim 1 further includes georeferencing the native species occurrence information.
5. The method as set forth in claim 4 , wherein the georeferencing includes automated georeferencing.
6. The method as set forth in claim 1 further including organizing the native species occurrence information.
7. The method as set forth in claim 6 , wherein the organizing includes formatting the native species occurrence information into columns characterized by an identification of the species, longitude, and latitude.
8. The method as set forth in claim 1 , wherein the native environmental information includes data sets from the Hydro1K elevational data set.
9. The method as set forth in claim 1 , wherein the native environmental information includes data sets from the global land cover database.
10. The method as set forth in claim 1 wherein the target environmental information includes data sets from the Hydro1K elevational data set.
11. The method as set forth in claim 1 , wherein the target environmental information includes data sets from the global land cover database.
12. The method as set forth in claim 1 , wherein the native environmental information includes at least 4-8 sets of geospatial information and the native species occurrence information includes at least 10-30 species occurrence points.
13. The method as set forth in claim 1 further comprising executing a jackknife algorithm in connection with rules associated with the ecological niche model.
14. The method as set forth in claim 13 , wherein the ecological niche model is formulated by selecting best subsets of the rules associated with the ecological niche model.
15. The method as set forth in claim 14 , wherein the ecological niche model is aggregated by summing the best subsets of the rules associated with the ecological niche model.
16. A method of predicting species invasions, the method comprising:
receiving native species occurrence information;
receiving geospatial information associated with native species occurrence information and with a target geographical region;
developing environmental criteria associated with an ecological niche model based on the native species occurrence information and the geospatial information; and
projecting the environmental criteria onto the target geographical region to model an invasion of the target geographical region by the species.
17. A distributed computer network for predicting effects of species invasions, the computer network comprising:
a species occurrence database server;
a geospatial environment database server; and
a modeling server having a memory containing computer readable instructions capable of: receiving native species occurrence information;
receiving native environmental information;
formulating at least one ecological niche model based on the native species occurrence information and the native environmental information;
receiving target environmental information corresponding to an alternative geography; and
projecting the ecological niche model onto the alternative geography to predict characteristics of an invasion of the species.
18. An apparatus operable to predict species invasions, the apparatus comprising:
means for receiving native species occurrence information;
means for receiving native environmental information;
means for formulating at least one ecological niche model based on the native species occurrence information and the native environmental information;
means for receiving target environmental information corresponding to an alternative geography; and
means for projecting the ecological niche model onto the alternative geography to predict characteristics of an invasion of the species.