System and method for predicting payer dormancy through the use of a test bed environment
One aspect of the disclosure relates to predicting payer dormancy through the use of a test bed environment. The payer dormancy may be determined based on observance of purchases made by users in a test bed environment. The test bed environment may grant free virtual currency to players that can be spent in the isolated and controlled test environment. The spending of these virtual currencies by users on offers of virtual items for use in the test bed environment may then be used to predict payer dormancy in an online game in which users spend real money consideration to acquire virtual currency.
1. A system for predicting payer dormancy, the system comprising:
one or more processors configured by machine-readable instructions to:
execute an instance of an online game, and to implement the instance of the online game to facilitate participation of users in the online game, the users including a first user;
present offers to sell sets of one or more virtual items usable in the online game to the users in a game shop interface, the individual offers for the sets of one or more virtual items having purchase prices in a virtual currency having a real money value, the offers including a first offer to sell a first set of one or more items for a first purchase price;
execute an instance of an online test game, and to implement the instance of the online test game to facilitate participation of users in the online test game;
cause presentation of offers to sell sets of one or more virtual items usable in the online test game to the users in a test shop interface, the individual offers for the sets of one or more virtual items having purchase prices in a test currency, the offers including a second offer to sell the first set of one or more items for a second purchase price;
obtain test purchase information that characterizes past purchases of the individual virtual items in the sets of one or more virtual items purchased through the test shop interface, the test purchase information including purchase information that characterizes past purchases of the individual virtual items in the first set of one or more virtual items through the test shop interface; and
determine a future spend prediction for the first user in the online game based on test purchase information of users of the online test game.
2. The system of claim 1 , wherein the one or more processors are further configured by machine-readable instructions to adjust the purchase price of the first offer for the first user based on the future spend prediction for the first user.
3. The system of claim 1 , wherein the one or more processors are further configured by machine-readable instructions to generate a notification for the first user related to a different online game based on the future spend prediction for the first user.
4. The system of claim 1 , wherein the one or more processors are further configured by machine-readable instructions to generate in-game suggestions for the first user based on the future spend prediction for the first user.
5. The system of claim 1 , wherein the future spend prediction for the first user is a predicted rate of spend by the first user.
6. The system of claim 1 , wherein the future spend prediction is a predicted amount of future spending by the first user.
7. The system of claim 1 , wherein the future spend prediction is a predicted amount of future game play for the first user.
8. A computer implemented method for predicting payer dormancy, the method being implemented in a computer system that includes one or more physical processors configured by machine-readable instructions, the method comprising:
executing an instance of an online game, and implementing the instance of the online game to facilitate participation of users in the online game;
presenting offers to sell sets of one or more virtual items usable in the online game to the users in a game shop interface, the individual offers for the sets of one or more virtual items having purchase prices in a virtual currency having a real money value, the offers including a first offer to sell a first set of one or more items for a first purchase price;
executing an instance of an online test game, and to implement the instance of the online test game to facilitate participation of users in the online test game;
presenting offers to sell sets of one or more virtual items usable in the online test game to the users in a test shop interface, the individual offers for the sets of one or more virtual items having purchase prices in a test currency, the offers including a second offer to sell the first set of one or more items for a second purchase price; obtaining test purchase information that characterizes past purchases of the individual virtual items in the sets of one or more virtual items purchased through the test shop interface, the test purchase information including purchase information that characterizes past purchases of the individual virtual items in the first set of one or more virtual items through the test shop interface;
determining a future spend prediction for the first user in the online game based on test purchase information of users of the online test game.
9. The method of claim 8 , further configured to adjust the purchase price of the first offer for the first user based on the future spend prediction for the first user.
10. The method of claim 8 , further configured to generate a notification for the first user related to a different online game based on the future spend prediction for the first user.
11. The method of claim 8 , further configured to generate in-game suggestions for the first user based on the future spend prediction for the first user.
12. The method of claim 8 , wherein the first user is a predicted rate of spend by the first user.
13. The method of claim 8 , wherein the future spend prediction is a predicted amount of future spending by the first user.
14. The method of claim 8 , wherein the future spend prediction is a predicted amount of future game play for the first user.