Golf play outcome simulation modeling system
An golf tournament simulation method may include generating predicted hole scores for each hole of each round of a golf tournament. Historical shot data corresponding to a historical occurrence of one or more hole events may be utilized as weight to generate predicted outcomes of hole events for each hole. A score probability distribution may be assigned to the predicted outcomes to generate predicted hole scores. Simulations may be analyzed for predicted outcome probabilities such as win probability, cutline, or Top-10 finish probability. The simulations may be updated during actual play by replacing predicted scores with actual scores. Predicted outcome probabilities may be updated based on the updated simulations updated to include the actual scores.
1. A system comprising:
a golf tournament simulation modeling system programmed to execute simulations of a round of a golf tournament to generate predictions with respect to play of participating players, the golf tournament simulation modeling system comprising:
a memory storing instructions;
a processing unit that executes the instructions to perform programmed operations of the golf tournament simulation modeling system;
a hole event probability generator programmed to calculate for each of the participating players a hole event probability for each hole event assigned to a hole of the round;
a hole event outcome generator programmed to generate for each hole event a predicted hole event outcome using the calculated hole event probability for the respective hole event as weight, the weight based at least in part on historical statistics of golf play;
a hole score generator programmed to apply a score probability distribution assigned to the hole to generate a predicted hole score with respect to the participating player based on each generated hole event outcome for the hole; and
an update processor programmed to replace predicted hole scores with actual hole scores during actual play of the round simulated and update one or more of the predictions based on the actual hole scores and the remaining predicted hole scores.
2. The system of claim 1 , wherein the historical statistics are representative of historical occurrence of the particular hole event in actual tournament play by collective players with respect to multiple holes, by collective players with respect to a specific hole being simulated, and by a player subject to the simulation with respect to multiple holes.
3. The system of claim 2 , wherein the hole event probabilities are based on historical statistics related to holes having a par value corresponding to the hole being simulated.
4. The system of claim 1 , wherein the hole event outcome of a first hole event for a first hole specifies an element required for identification of the historical statistics to be used to generate a hole event probability of a second hole event for the first hole.
5. The system of claim 1 , wherein a first hole event probability for a par 4 hole comprises a probability of hitting the fairway off-tee, and a first hole event probability for a par 3 hole comprises a probability of hitting the green off-tee.
6. The system of claim 5 , wherein the off-tee hole event probability uses the historical statistics comprising:
for par 3 holes: player GIR % on par 3 holes, collective GIR % for the hole, and collective GIR % on par 3 holes; and
for par 4 holes: player hit fairway on par 4 holes, collective hit fairway % for the hole, and collective hit fairway % on par 4 holes.
7. The system of claim 5 , wherein a second hole event probability for par 4 holes comprises a probability of hitting the green from a location determined by the predicted outcome of the first hole event.
8. The system of claim 7 , wherein, if the predicted hole event location outcome for the off-tee location hole event calculated for the hole is fairway, the historical statistics for a subsequent shot location hole event comprise historical statistics corresponding to historical occurrence of hitting the green from the fairway comprising player GIR % from fairway on par 4 holes, collective GIR % from fairway on the hole, and collective GIR % from fairway on par 4 holes, and if the predicted hole event location outcome for the off-tee location hole event calculated for the hole is non-fairway, the historical statistic for the subsequent shot location hole event comprises historical statistics corresponding to historical occurrence of hitting the green from non-fairway comprising player GIR % from non-fairway on par 4 holes, collective GIR % from non-fairway on the hole, and collective GIR % from non-fairway on par 4 holes.
9. The system of claim 8 , wherein the historical statistics used for subsequent shot location hole events with respect to par 4 holes further include historical statistics corresponding to the respective historical occurrence on par 5 holes.
10. The system of claim 1 , wherein a hole event probability algorithm is used to generate the hole event probabilities, and wherein the hole event probability algorithm comprises:
P
(
Event
)
=
xy
z
xy
z
+
(
1
-
x
)
(
1
-
y
)
(
1
-
z
)
where x is a historical occurrence of the player performing the hole event, y is a collective historical occurrence of the hole event on the particular hole, and z is a collective historical occurrence of the hole event during play on multiple courses.
11. The system of claim 1 , wherein the score probability distributions are representative of historical score distributions on the hole given occurrence of each potential hole event outcome or combination of hole event outcomes for the hole.
12. The system of claim 1 , wherein the golf tournament simulation modeling system is programmed to execute a plurality of simulations for all rounds of the golf tournament to generate one or more of the predicted outcomes with respect to the golf tournament, wherein the prediction engine is configured to generate predicted tournament scores from predicted round scores generated from the predicted hole scores, and wherein the update processor is further configured to:
sum the predicted round scores, as updated, for all tournament rounds to generate updated predicted tournament scores for the participating players;
sum the predicted round scores, as updated, for pre-cut rounds to establish an updated cutline;
include predicted round scores for post-cut rounds in scores of the participating players updated to not make cut; and
exclude predicted round scores for post-cut rounds in scores of the participating players updated to not make cut.
13. A system for updating a golf tournament simulation, the system comprising:
an update processor programmed to execute update operations with respect to a golf tournament simulation following start of actual play in the golf tournament;
a memory storing instructions; and
a processing unit that executes the instructions to perform the programmed operations of the update processor, the operations comprising:
updating the tournament simulation of the golf tournament in real time by:
substituting actual hole scores for predicted hole scores as players complete holes;
updating predicted round scores, accounting for the substituted actual hole scores; and
generating updated predicted tournament scores for all competing players from the updated predicted round scores for all tournament rounds.
14. The system of claim 13 , wherein the tournament simulation includes a plurality of the tournament simulations and generates predicted outcome probabilities of the golf tournament based on one or both of the predicted round scores or predicted tournament scores of the participating players predicted by the plurality of tournament simulations, and wherein the operations further comprise:
performing the real time updating of the tournament simulation of the golf tournament with respect to the plurality of tournament simulations of the golf tournament; and
updating one or more of the predicted outcome probabilities based on one or more of the updated predicted round scores, predicted tournament scores, or both.
15. The system of claim 14 , wherein the one or more predicted outcome probabilities comprises a win probability, a top-10 finish probability, a cutline probability, and a probability of making a cut.
16. A method of simulating a golf event, the method comprising:
executing simulations of a round of a golf tournament to generate predictions with respect to play of participating players, the golf tournament simulation modeling system comprising memory storing instructions and a processing unit that executes the instructions to perform programmed operations of the golf tournament simulation modeling system, the operations comprising:
calculating, with a hole event probability generator, for each of the participating players, a hole event probability for each hole event assigned to a hole of the round;
generating, with a hole event outcome generator, a predicted hole event outcome for each hole event using the calculated hole event probability for the respective hole event as weight, the weight based at least in part on historical statistics of golf play;
applying, with a hole score generator, a score probability distribution assigned to the hole to generate a predicted hole score with respect to the participating player based on each generated hole event outcome for the hole; and
replacing, with an update processor, one or more of the predicted hole scores with actual hole scores during actual play of the round simulated and updating one or more of the generated predictions based on the actual hole scores and remaining predicted hole scores.
17. The method of claim 16 , wherein the historical statistics are representative of historical occurrence of the particular hole event in actual tournament play by collective players with respect to multiple holes, by collective players with respect to a specific hole being simulated, and by a player subject to the simulation with respect to multiple holes.
18. The method of claim 17 , wherein the hole event probabilities are based on historical statistics related to holes having a par value corresponding to the hole being simulated.
19. The method of claim 16 , wherein the hole event outcome of a first hole event for a first hole specifies an element required for identification of the historical statistics to be used to generate a hole event probability of a second hole event for the first hole.
20. The method of claim 16 , wherein a first hole event probability for a par 4 hole comprises a probability of hitting the fairway off-tee, and a first hole event probability for a par 3 hole comprises a probability of hitting the green off-tee.
21. The method of claim 20 , wherein the off-tee hole event probability uses the historical statistics comprising:
for par 3 holes: player GIR % on par 3 holes, collective GIR % for the hole, and collective GIR % on par 3 holes; and
for par 4 holes: player hit fairway on par 4 holes, collective hit fairway % for the hole, and collective hit fairway % on par 4 holes.
22. The method of claim 20 , wherein a second hole event probability for par 4 holes comprises a probability of hitting the green from a location determined by the predicted outcome of the first hole event.
23. The method of claim 22 , wherein, if the predicted hole event location outcome for the off-tee location hole event calculated for the hole is fairway, the historical statistics for a subsequent shot location hole event comprise historical statistics corresponding to historical occurrence of hitting the green from the fairway comprising player GIR % from fairway on par 4 holes, collective GIR % from fairway on the hole, and collective GIR % from fairway on par 4 holes, and if the predicted hole event location outcome for the off-tee location hole event calculated for the hole is non-fairway, the historical statistics for the subsequent shot location hole event comprise historical statistics corresponding to historical occurrence of hitting the green from non-fairway comprising player GIR % from non-fairway on par 4 holes, collective GIR % from non-fairway on the hole, and collective GIR % from non-fairway on par 4 holes.
24. The method of claim 23 , wherein the historical statistics used for subsequent shot location hole events with respect to par 4 holes further include historical statistics corresponding to the respective historical occurrence on par 5 holes.
25. The method of claim 16 , wherein a hole event probability algorithm is used to generate the hole event probabilities, and wherein the hole event probability algorithm comprises:
P
(
Event
)
=
xy
z
xy
z
+
(
1
-
x
)
(
1
-
y
)
(
1
-
z
)
where x is a historical occurrence of the player performing the hole event, y is a collective historical occurrence of the hole event on the particular hole, and z is a collective historical occurrence of the hole event during play on multiple courses.
26. The method of claim 16 , wherein the score probability distributions are representative of historical score distributions on the hole given occurrence of each potential hole event outcome or combination of hole event outcomes for the hole.
27. The method of claim 16 , operations of the golf tournament simulation modeling system further comprise:
generating predicted tournament scores from predicted round scores generated from the predicted hole scores;
executing a plurality of simulations with respect to each round of the golf tournament to generate one or more of the predicted outcomes with respect to the golf tournament;
summing, with the update processor, the predicted round scores, as updated, for all tournament rounds to generate updated predicted tournament scores for the participating players; and
summing, with the update processor, the predicted round scores, as updated, for pre-cut rounds to establish an updated cutline, wherein the update processor is configured to include the predicted round scores for post-cut rounds in scores of the participating players updated to not make cut and exclude predicted round scores for post-cut rounds in scores of the participating players updated to not make cut.