Financial activity based on natural peril events
A financial activity network includes a central managing system connected to a plurality of participant terminals. Rules governing operation of the financial activity are stored for future reference. A participant provides investment information such as a map location for the predicted strike by the natural peril event and, optionally, one or more secondary parameters relating to the natural peril event, such as the time interval between the time of investment and the time of an event strike and/or the severity of the event strike according to an established scale. In one example, an external objective independent information source is consulted, with the external objective independent information source providing monitoring, interpretation and derived determination of parameters pertaining to the natural peril event. Methods and articles of manufacture are also disclosed.
1. A computerized method of offering for purchase, positions predicting a future first natural peril landstrike resulting from a substantially continuous ongoing natural process culminating in a future first natural peril landstrike, comprising:
providing a computer graphical user interface having first and second portions;
providing a database containing 1) a map of geographical areas corresponding to the positions to be offered for purchase, 2) strike probabilities of future first natural peril landstrikes for the geographical areas; and 3) offer prices for purchasing positions predicting future first natural peril landstrikes in respective geographical areas, that are based at least in part on respective strike probabilities;
displaying the map in the first portion of the graphical user interface with user selectable portions corresponding to the geographical areas of the map;
during the substantially continuous ongoing natural process, electronically obtaining updated data providing the basis for electronic calculations of strike probabilities of a future first natural peril landstrike for the geographical areas; and
in response to a user selecting a user selectable portion and thereby indicating a geographical area for selection, displaying in the second portion of the graphical user interface, an offer price, electronically updated in substantially real time so as to be based at least in part on an updated strike probability, for purchasing a position predicting the future first natural peril landstrike in the indicated geographical area.
2. The method according to claim 1 , wherein the positions comprise derivative securities interests predicting the eventual outcome of the future first natural peril landstrike as a combined call on one geographical area predicted to be struck by the future first natural peril landstrike and a put on all other geographical areas.
3. The method of claim 2 wherein the derivative securities interests comprise one of said futures contract, said options contract and said option on futures contract.
4. The method of claim 2 further comprising:
electronically assigning a value to derivative securities interests purchased;
determining the outcome of the future first natural peril landstrike; and
assigning a portion of the value to derivative securities interests predicting the determined outcome of the future first natural peril landstrike.
5. The method according to claim 1 , further comprising, in response to the user selecting the user selectable portion, displaying in the second portion of the graphical user interface, a strike probability of a future first natural peril landstrike for the indicated geographical area.
6. The method according to claim 1 , wherein the second portion of the graphical user interface displays data in the form of a table.
7. The method according to claim 1 , further comprising a third portion of said graphical user interface for entry of order data including a designation of the indicated geographical area and the offer price for purchasing a position predicting a future first natural peril landstrike in the indicated geographical area.
8. The method according to claim 7 , further comprising a fourth portion of said graphical user interface for confirming a commitment to purchase a position corresponding to the order data entered.
9. A system for offering purchase positions predicting a future first natural peril landstrike resulting from a substantially continuous ongoing natural process starting with a reported precursor tropical storm at sea and culminating in the future first natural peril landstrike, comprising:
a computer interface module for electronically providing a graphical user interface having first and second portions;
a database containing 1) a map of geographical areas corresponding to the positions to be offered for purchase, 2) electronically calculated strike probabilities of a future first natural peril landstrike for the geographical areas; and 3) offer prices for purchasing positions predicting a future first natural peril landstrike in respective geographical areas, electronically calculated, at least in part, on respective strike probabilities;
the interface module communicating with the database to display the map in the first portion of the graphical user interface with user selectable portions corresponding to the geographical areas of the map;
the database further containing electronically updated data during the substantially continuous ongoing natural process, that provides the basis for electronic calculations of strike probabilities of a future first natural peril landstrike for the geographical areas; and
the interface module, in response to a user selecting a user selectable portion and thereby indicating a geographical area for selection, displaying in the second portion of the graphical user interface, an offer price, electronically updated in substantially real time so as to be based at least in part on an updated strike probability, for purchasing a position predicting a future first natural peril landstrike in the indicated geographical area.
10. The system according to claim 9 , wherein the interface module, in response to the user selecting the user selectable portion, also displays in the second portion of the graphical user interface, a strike probability of a future first natural peril landstrike in the indicated geographical area.
11. The system according to claim 10 , wherein the second portion of the graphical user interface is displayed in the form of a table.
12. The system according to claim 9 , wherein the graphical user interface further has a third portion for entry of order data including a designation of the indicated geographical area and the offer price for purchasing a position predicting a future first natural peril landstrike in the indicated geographical area.
13. The system according to claim 9 , wherein the graphical user interface further has a fourth portion for confirming a commitment to purchase a position corresponding to the order data entered.
14. An article of manufacture including a machine readable medium for causing a computer to perform a computerized method of offering for purchase, positions predicting a future first natural peril landstrike resulting from a substantially continuous ongoing natural process starting with a reported precursor tropical storm at sea and culminating in the future first natural peril landstrike, comprising:
providing a computer graphical user interface having first and second portions;
providing a database containing 1) a map of geographical areas corresponding to the positions to be offered for purchase, 2) strike probabilities of future first natural peril landstrikes for the geographical areas; and 3) offer prices for purchasing positions predicting future first natural peril landstrikes in respective geographical areas, that are based at least in part on respective strike probabilities;
displaying the map in the first portion of the graphical user interface with user selectable portions corresponding to the geographical areas of the map;
during the substantially continuous ongoing natural process, electronically obtaining updated data providing the basis for electronic calculations of strike probabilities of a future first natural peril landstrike for the geographical areas; and
in response to a user selecting a user selectable portion and thereby indicating a geographical area for selection, displaying in the second portion of the graphical user interface, an offer price, electronically updated in substantially real time so as to be based at least in part on an updated strike probability, for purchasing a position predicting the future first natural peril landstrike in the indicated geographical area.