Computerized system and method for calibrating sports statistics projections by player performance tiers
The system and method provides team guidance recommendations. The system and method provides player selection guidance by realistically valuing top-tier and lower-tier players. The system and method provides situational-based starting lineup recommendations by creating and using tier-specific, non-normal distributions in a probability distribution-based system for providing fantasy sports player selection guidance. The system and method generates variance and accuracy information from historical data of a particular player projection system, and generates non-normal fantasy point distributions from the same player projection system using the previously generated variance and accuracy information.
1. A computer-implemented method for using historical player projection data to build non-normal probability distributions for various tiers of player performance, comprising:
providing an archive of player fantasy point projections, wherein the archive comprises fantasy point projection data;
calculating tiered probability distributions of projection variances using the fantasy point projection data;
calculating tiered probability distributions of projection accuracy using the fantasy point projection data; and
creating non-normal fantasy point probability distributions from future player statistics projections thereby providing users with fantasy sport team management guidance.
2. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , wherein the archive comprises AccuScore NFL player fantasy point projections.
3. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , further comprising providing new player statistics projections.
4. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , wherein calculating tiered probability distributions of the projection accuracy is based on the tiers from week −12.
5. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , wherein calculating tiered probability distributions of the projection variances uses the average of Tier 3 players to approximate the variance for Tier 5 players.
6. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , wherein the fantasy sport team management guidance comprises starting lineup recommendations.
7. The computer system for using historical player projection data to build non-normal probability distributions for various tiers of player performance, comprising:
providing an archive of player fantasy point projections, wherein the archive comprises fantasy point projection data;
calculating tiered probability distributions of projection variances using the fantasy point projection data;
calculating tiered probability distributions of projection accuracy using the fantasy point projection data; and
creating non-normal fantasy point probability distributions from future player statistics projections thereby providing users with fantasy sport team management guidance.
8. The computer system of claim 7 , wherein the archive comprises AccuScore NFL player fantasy point projections.
9. The computer system of claim 7 , further comprising providing new player statistics projections.
10. The computer system of claim 7 , wherein calculating tiered probability distributions of the projection accuracy is based on the tiers from week −12.
11. The computer system of claim 7 , wherein calculating tiered probability distributions of the projection variances uses the average of Tier 3 players to approximate the variance for Tier 5 players.
12. The computer system of claim 7 , wherein the fantasy sport team management guidance comprises starting lineup recommendations.
13. A non-transitory computer program product comprising program instructions encoded on one or more computer readable mediums that when executed by one or more processors cause a process for using player projection data to build non-normal probability distributions to be carried out, the process comprising:
providing an archive of player fantasy point projections, wherein the archive comprises fantasy point projection data;
calculating tiered probability distributions of projection variances using the fantasy point projection data;
calculating tiered probability distributions of projection accuracy using the fantasy point projection data; and
creating non-normal fantasy point probability distributions from future player statistics projections thereby providing users with fantasy sport team management guidance.
14. The non-transitory computer program product of claim 13 , wherein the archive comprises AccuScore NFL player fantasy point projections.
15. The non-transitory computer program product of claim 13 , further comprising providing new player statistics projections.
16. The non-transitory computer program product of claim 13 , wherein calculating tiered probability distributions of the projection accuracy is based on the tiers from week −12.
17. The non-transitory computer program product of claim 13 , wherein calculating tiered probability distributions of the projection variances uses the average of Tier 3 players to approximate the variance for Tier 5 players.
18. The non-transitory computer program product of claim 13 , wherein the fantasy sport team management guidance comprises starting lineup recommendations.