Speed test throughput distribution

1. A computer-implemented method comprising:

determining a total data demand distribution for a plurality of subscribers associated with a link between a gateway router (GWR) and an optical line terminal (OLT) in a network;

identifying a maximum link capacity of the link between the GWR and the OLT;

identifying a speed tier for which a speed test is to be executed;

determining, by a computing device, a speed test throughput distribution based on the speed tier, the total data demand distribution and the maximum link capacity in an identified time interval;

identifying when the total data demand distribution is projected to exceed the maximum link capacity; and

applying an automated remediation measure to reduce the ratio of the total data demand distribution to the maximum link capacity.

2. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , wherein determining the total data demand distribution further comprises:

identifying at least one speed tier for each of at least one subset of the plurality of subscribers;

identifying a number of subscribers in each subset of the plurality of subscribers for each of the at least one speed tier;

identifying data demand on a per service basis for each of the at least one speed tier for each subset of the plurality of subscribers; and

determining the total data demand distribution based on aggregating the data demand for the plurality of subscribers at a specific instant in an identified time interval.

3. The computer-implemented method of claim 2 , wherein the at least one subset of the plurality of subscribers is a set of data subscribers and identifying data demand further comprises:

identifying each of the data subscribers as “on” or “off”, based on whether a data subscriber is downloading at a rate of the speed tier; and

determining a distribution of data demand for the set of data subscribers at the specific instant in the identified time interval.

4. The computer-implemented method of claim 2 , wherein the at least one subset of the plurality of subscribers is a set of video on demand (VoD) subscribers and identifying data demand further comprises:

identifying a predetermined number of VoD consuming devices associated with each VoD subscriber;

estimating a percentage of the VoD consuming devices that receive VoD in the identified time interval;

estimating a percentage of the predetermined number of VoD consuming devices that receive VoD at a particular data consumption rate; and

determining a distribution of data demand for the set of VoD subscribers based on the identified percentage of the VoD consuming devices at the specific instant in the identified time interval.

5. The computer-implemented method of claim 2 , further comprising:

identifying a congestion point based on the total data demand distribution and the maximum link capacity.

6. The computer-implemented method of claim 2 , wherein identifying data demand on a per service basis further comprises:

identifying the data demand based on a high speed service, an Internet protocol television (IPTV) service, Internet access service, a high speed data transmission line service, a live TV to consumer electronics device service, and a video on demand (VoD) service.

7. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , wherein the identified time interval is a busiest hour for data transfer in the network.

8. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , wherein determining a total data demand distribution for a plurality of subscribers further comprises:

incorporating at least one growth assumption over time when determining the total data demand distribution.

9. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , wherein the total data demand distribution identifies a download rate R in the identified time interval and the probability (P) that R lies in an interval dx around x, for any given value x, and is given by:

f ( x )= P ( x≦R≦x+dx ).

10. The computer-implemented method of claim 9 , wherein determining the speed test throughput distribution further comprises applying:

S=r if R+r<c, wherein r is a speed tier, S is a throughput speed for a speed test and c is the maximum link capacity.

11. The computer-implemented method of claim 10 , wherein:

f(r, x) decreases monotonically when x>c for fixed r.

12. The computer-implemented method of claim 11 , further comprising:

determining a mean data throughput ES by applying:

ES

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 wherein distribution of R is given by probabilities p i =P(R=i).

13. The computer-implemented method of claim 1 , wherein applying the automated remediation measure further comprises:

alerting personnel associated with a service provider for the network that the total data demand distribution is within a predetermined probability of exceeding the maximum link capacity.

14. A device, comprising:

a memory to store a plurality of instructions; and

a processor configured to execute the instructions in the memory to:

determine a total data demand distribution for a plurality of subscribers associated with a link between a gateway router (GWR) and an optical line terminal (OLT) in a network; wherein, when determining the total data demand distribution, the processor is further configured to:

identify at least one speed tier for each of at least one subset of the plurality of subscribers, wherein the at least one subset of the plurality of subscribers is a set of video on demand (VoD) subscribers:

identify a number of subscribers in each subset of the plurality of subscribers for each at least one speed tier, wherein when identifying the data demand, the processor is further configured to

identify a predetermined number of VoD consuming devices associated with each VoD subscriber,

estimate a percentage of the VoD consuming devices that receive VoD in the identified time interval,

estimate a percentage of the predetermined number of VoD consuming devices that receive VoD at a particular data consumption rate, and

determine a distribution of data demand for the set of VoD subscribers based on the identified percentage of the VoD consuming devices at the specific instant in the identified time interval;

estimate data demand on a per service basis for each of the at least one speed tier for each subset of the plurality of subscribers;

determine the total data demand distribution based on aggregating the data demand for the plurality of subscribers at a specific instant in an identified time interval;

identify a maximum link capacity of the link between the GWR and the OLT;

identify a speed tier at which a speed test is to be executed; and

determine a speed test throughput distribution based on the speed tier, the total data demand distribution and the maximum link capacity in an identified time interval.

15. The device of claim 14 , wherein the at least one subset of the plurality of subscribers is a set of data subscribers and when identifying the data demand the processor is further to:

identify each of the data subscribers as “on” or “off”, wherein a data subscriber downloading at a rate of the speed tier is “on” and a data subscriber not downloading is “off”; and

determine a distribution of data demand for the set of data subscribers at the specific instant in the identified time interval.

16. The device of claim 14 , wherein the total data demand distribution identifies a download rate R in the identified time interval and the probability (P) that R lies in an interval dx around x, for any given value x, is given by:

f ( x )= P ( x≦R≦x+dx ).

17. A non-transitory computer-readable medium including instructions to be executed by a processor, the instructions including one or more instructions, when executed by the processor, for causing the processor to:

determine a total data demand distribution for a plurality of subscribers associated with a link between a gateway router (GWR) and an optical line terminal (OLT) in a network;

identify a maximum link capacity of the link between the GWR and the OLT;

identify a speed tier at which a speed test is to be executed; and

determine a speed test throughput distribution based on the speed tier, the total data demand distribution and the maximum link capacity in an identified time interval;

identify when the total data demand distribution is projected to exceed the maximum link capacity; and

apply an automated remediation measure to reduce the ratio of the total data demand distribution to the maximum link capacity.

18. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 17 , wherein, when determining the total data demand distribution, the one or more instructions further includes instructions to:

identify at least one speed tier for each of at least one subset of the plurality of subscribers;

identify a number of subscribers in each subset of the plurality of subscribers for each of the at least one speed tier;

identify data demand on a per service basis for each of the at least one speed tier for each subset of the plurality of subscribers; and

determine the total data demand distribution based on aggregating the data demand for the plurality of subscribers at a specific instant in an identified time interval.

19. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 17 , wherein the identified time interval is a busiest hour for data transfer in the network.

20. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 17 , wherein the one or more instructions further includes instructions to:

determine a mean data throughput ES by applying:

ES

=

∑

i

=

0

c

⁢

f

⁡

(

r

,

i

)

⁢

p

i

,

 wherein distribution of R is given by probabilities p i =P(R=i).