In-situ reservoir depletion management based on surface characteristics of production

1. A method of developing a hydrocarbon well, the method comprising:

obtaining wellhead production data for a hydrocarbon well, the wellhead production data comprising:

measurements of wellhead pressure of the hydrocarbon well over a period of interest; and

measurements of wellhead production rate of the hydrocarbon well over the period of interest;

determining, based on the measurements of wellhead production rate, observed constant wellhead production rates, each of the observed constant wellhead production rates comprising a constant wellhead production rate of the well that occurs at least a threshold number of times over the period of interest;

determining, for each occurrence of a constant wellhead production rate of the observed constant wellhead production rates:

a wellhead pressure for the occurrence of the constant wellhead production rate; and

a cumulative production volume comprising a total production of the well at the occurrence of the constant wellhead production rate;

determining, for each of the observed constant wellhead production rates, a depletion rate comprising a slope of a best fit line through points of wellhead pressure versus cumulative production volume for each occurrence of a constant wellhead production rate of the observed constant wellhead production rate, the depletion rate being indicative of a change in wellhead pressure of the well as a function of production volume of the well at the observed constant wellhead production rate;

determining a depletion rate for the well comprising an average of the depletion rates for the observed constant wellhead production rates, the depletion rate for the well being indicative of a change in a wellhead pressure of the well as a function of production volume of the well; and

adjusting, based on the depletion rate for the well, a production flow of the well.

2. The method of claim 1 , further comprising:

determining a cumulative production volume for the period of interest;

determining a depletion of the well by multiplying the depletion rate for the well by the cumulative production volume for the period of interest;

determining an initial reservoir pressure for a reservoir intersected by a wellbore of the well; and

determining a resulting reservoir pressure for the reservoir by reducing the initial reservoir pressure by the depletion of the well.

3. The method of claim 1 , wherein the measurements of wellhead pressure of the hydrocarbon well are obtained by way of a surface pressure sensor, and are measures of a flowing pressure of production flowing through a surface system of the well.

4. The method of claim 1 , wherein the measurements of wellhead production rate of the hydrocarbon well are obtained by way of a surface flow rate sensor, and are measures of a rate of production flow through a surface system of the well.

5. The method of claim 1 , wherein each of the constant wellhead production rates of the well comprises a wellhead production rate of the well that is constant for at least a threshold duration of time.

6. The method of claim 5 , wherein the threshold duration of time is 20 hours, and threshold number of times is 10 occurrences.

7. The method of claim 1 , wherein the wellhead pressure for an occurrence of a constant wellhead production rate of the observed constant wellhead production rates comprises an average of measurements of wellhead pressure of the hydrocarbon well over a duration of the occurrence of the constant wellhead production rate.

8. The method of claim 1 , wherein adjusting production flow of the well comprises operating a production valve of the well to achieve a target depletion rate for the well.

9. The method of claim 1 , further comprising:

determining that the depletion rate for the well is below a target depletion rate for the well; and

conducting the injection operation in response to determining that the depletion rate for the well is below a target depletion rate for the well, to stimulate production at the well.

10. A hydrocarbon well system comprising:

a surface sensing system comprising:

a surface pressure sensor configured to acquire measurements of wellhead pressure of a hydrocarbon well over a period of interest;

a surface flow rate sensors configured to acquire measurements of wellhead production rate of the hydrocarbon well over the period of interest;

a well control system configured to:

obtain wellhead production data for the hydrocarbon well, the wellhead production data comprising:

the measurements of wellhead pressure of the hydrocarbon well over the period of interest; and

the measurements of wellhead production rate of the hydrocarbon well over the period of interest;

determine, based on the measurements of wellhead production rate, observed constant wellhead production rates, each of the observed constant wellhead production rates comprising a constant wellhead production rate of the well that occurs at least a threshold number of times over the period of interest;

determine, for each occurrence of a constant wellhead production rate of the observed constant wellhead production rates:

a wellhead pressure for the occurrence of the constant wellhead production rate; and

a cumulative production volume comprising a total production of the well at the occurrence of the constant wellhead production rate;

determine, for each of the observed constant wellhead production rates, a depletion rate comprising a slope of a best fit line through points of wellhead pressure versus cumulative production volume for each occurrence of a constant wellhead production rate of the observed constant wellhead production rate, the depletion rate being indicative of a change in wellhead pressure of the well as a function of production volume of the well at the observed constant wellhead production rate;

determine a depletion rate for the well comprising an average of the depletion rates for the observed constant wellhead production rates, the depletion rate for the well being indicative of a change in a wellhead pressure of the well as a function of production volume of the well; and

adjust, based on the depletion rate for the well, a production flow of the well.

11. The system of claim 10 , wherein the well control system is further configured to:

determine a cumulative production volume for the period of interest;

determine a depletion of the well by multiplying the depletion rate for the well by the cumulative production volume for the period of interest;

determine an initial reservoir pressure for a reservoir intersected by a wellbore of the well; and

determine a resulting reservoir pressure for the reservoir by reducing the initial reservoir pressure by the depletion of the well.

12. The system of claim 10 , wherein the measurements of wellhead pressure of the hydrocarbon well are measures of a flowing pressure of production flowing through a surface system of the well.

13. The system of claim 10 , wherein the measurements of wellhead production rate of the hydrocarbon well are measures of a rate of production flow through a surface system of the well.

14. The system of claim 10 , wherein each of the constant wellhead production rates of the well comprises a wellhead production rate of the well that is constant for at least a threshold duration of time.

15. The system of claim 14 , wherein the threshold duration of time is 20 hours, and threshold number of times is 10 occurrences.

16. The system of claim 10 , wherein the wellhead pressure for an occurrence of a constant wellhead production rate of the observed constant wellhead production rates comprises an average of measurements of wellhead pressure of the hydrocarbon well over a duration of the occurrence of the constant wellhead production rate.

17. The system of claim 10 , wherein adjusting production flow of the well comprises operating a production valve of the well to achieve a target depletion rate for the well.

18. The system of claim 10 , wherein the well control system is further configured to:

determine whether the depletion rate for the well is below a target depletion rate for the well; and

conduct an injection operation in response to determining that the depletion rate for the well is below a target depletion rate for the well, to stimulate production at the well.

19. A method comprising using a non-transitory medium comprising program instructions stored thereon that are executable by a processor to cause the following operations:

obtaining wellhead production data for a hydrocarbon well, the wellhead production data comprising:

measurements of wellhead pressure of the hydrocarbon well over a period of interest; and

measurements of wellhead production rate of the hydrocarbon well over the period of interest;

determining, based on the measurements of wellhead production rate, observed constant wellhead production rates, each of the observed constant wellhead production rates comprising a constant wellhead production rate of the well that occurs at least a threshold number of times over the period of interest;

determining, for each occurrence of a constant wellhead production rate of the observed constant wellhead production rates:

a wellhead pressure for the occurrence of the constant wellhead production rate; and

a cumulative production volume comprising a total production of the well at the occurrence of the constant wellhead production rate;

determining, for each of the observed constant wellhead production rates, a depletion rate comprising a slope of a best fit line through points of wellhead pressure versus cumulative production volume for each occurrence of a constant wellhead production rate of the observed constant wellhead production rate, the depletion rate being indicative of a change in wellhead pressure of the well as a function of production volume of the well at the observed constant wellhead production rate;

determining a depletion rate for the well comprising an average of the depletion rates for the observed constant wellhead production rates, the depletion rate for the well being indicative of a change in a wellhead pressure of the well as a function of production volume of the well; and

adjusting, based on the depletion rate for the well, a production flow of the well.

20. The method of claim 19 , wherein the measurements of wellhead pressure of the hydrocarbon well are obtained by way of a surface pressure sensor, and are measures of a flowing pressure of production flowing through a surface system of the well.