Online techniques for parameter mean and variance estimation in dynamic regression models

1. A system, comprising:

a data storage system for storing one or more outcome indicators, and one or more variable user interface instances; and

a processing device in communication with the data storage system, wherein the processing device performs operations comprising:

communicating with an endpoint device to obtain device-based information associated with the endpoint device; and

transmitting at least one stored variable user interface instance to the endpoint device for presentation on the endpoint device based on the stored outcome indicators, and the obtained device-based information associated with the endpoint device.

2. The system of claim 1 , wherein the obtained information includes an Internet protocol (IP) address of the endpoint device, a date or a time of the communicating, a country associated with the IP address, a type of the endpoint device, an operating system of the endpoint device, an International Mobile Station Equipment Identity (IMEI) of the endpoint device, or an identifier of a browser executing on the endpoint device.

3. The system of claim 1 , wherein the instance of the variable user interface is selected, by the processing device, from a plurality of instances of the variable user interface, wherein each instance of the variable user interface includes at least one difference.

4. The system of claim 3 , wherein the instance of the variable user interface is selected based on the obtained information and a plurality of predictive models indicating a probabilistic relationship between the obtained information and the plurality of instances of the variable user interface.

5. The system of claim 1 , wherein the transmitted instance of the variable user interface includes a first graphical element that is different from a second graphical element included in another instance of the variable user interface.

6. The system of claim 5 , wherein the first graphical element is a first portion of a first media item and the second graphical element is a second portion of the first media item.

7. The system of claim 5 , wherein the first graphical element is a portion of a first media item and the second graphical element is a portion of a second media item.

8. The system of claim 1 , wherein the processing device performs operations further comprising:

determining an outcome of the transmitting of the instance of the variable user interface to the endpoint device;

generating a new outcome indicator indicative of the determined outcome; and

storing the new outcome indicator in the data storage system.

9. The system of claim 8 , wherein the processing device performs operations further comprising:

communicating with another endpoint device to obtain new information associated with the other endpoint device; and

transmitting another instance of the variable user interface to the other endpoint device for presentation on the other endpoint device based on the new outcome indicator and the obtained new information associated with the other endpoint device.

10. The system of claim 8 , wherein the processing device performs operations further comprising updating, based on the new outcome indicator, a plurality of predictive models indicating a probabilistic relationship between the obtained information and a plurality of instances of the variable user interface without reanalyzing the stored outcome indicators.

11. The system of claim 10 , wherein the predictive models each include a mean parameter and a variance parameter.

12. The system of claim 1 , wherein the outcome indicators are binary and indicate whether or not a user of the endpoint device completes registration.

13. A system, comprising:

means for obtaining device-based information associated with an endpoint device, the endpoint device being in communication with a network-based media system;

means for generating models associated with obtained information and outcomes;

means for transmitting an instance of a variable user interface to the endpoint device, the system including a plurality of stored variable user interface instances, wherein the instance of the variable user interface is selected from a plurality of instances of the variable user interface based on the generated models and based on the obtained device-based information;

means for determining an outcome associated with the instance of the variable user interface being transmitted to the endpoint device, the outcome and the obtained information being stored as an outcome indicator; and

means for updating the generated models based on the determined outcome without recomputing previously obtained outcome indicators.

14. The system of claim 13 , wherein the means for obtaining information associated with an endpoint device of a user comprises means for obtaining information associated with another endpoint device.

15. The system of claim 14 , wherein the means for transmitting the instance of the variable user interface to the endpoint device comprises means to select another instance of the variable user interface for transmission to another endpoint device based on the updated models.

16. A method, comprising:

communicating with a first endpoint device within a network-based media system to obtain first device-based information associated with the first endpoint device, the network-based media system being configured to store a plurality of variable user interface instances;

transmitting at least a first stored variable user interface instance to the first endpoint device for presentation on the first endpoint device based on a plurality of predictive models associating obtained information to outcomes and based on the obtained device-based information;

communicating with a second endpoint device to obtain new device-based information associated with the second endpoint device; and

transmitting at least a second stored variable user interface instance to the second endpoint device for presentation on the second endpoint device based on the plurality of predictive models as updated in view of the first information and a first outcome associated with the first endpoint device.

17. The method of claim 16 , wherein the obtained information includes an Internet protocol (IP) address of the endpoint device, a date or a time of the communicating, a country associated with the IP address, a type of the endpoint device, an operating system of the endpoint device, an International Mobile Station Equipment Identity (IMEI) of the endpoint device, or an identifier of a browser executing on the endpoint device.

18. The method of claim 16 , wherein the instance of the variable user interface is selected based on the obtained information and a plurality of predictive models indicating a probabilistic relationship between the obtained information and a plurality of instances of the variable user interface.

19. The method of claim 16 , further comprising updating, based on a new outcome indicator formed from the first information and the first outcome, a plurality of predictive models indicating a probabilistic relationship between the obtained information and a plurality of instances of the variable user interface without reanalyzing previously stored outcome indicators.

20. The method of claim 16 , wherein the first and second instances of the variable user interface include a set of graphical elements displayed in different sequences.