Audit method and system and supply method and system for PV power injection and consumption in a power grid system

1. A method of supplying power in a power grid, the method comprising:

determining an initial forward probabilistic power supply time profile of an aggregate intermittent power source connected to the power grid;

determining a target power demand time profile of at least one load connected to the power grid;

creating a synthetic probability model of consumption;

associating at least respective portions of the initial forward probabilistic power supply time profile and the target demand time profile such that a probability of supply of power from the intermittent power source to a load meets a specified criterion based on the synthetic probability model of consumption and comprising at least one of at least one percentage blend, at least one penetration ratio, and at least one correlation among a secondary source and the load;

determining whether a measured supply of power from the aggregate intermittent power source to the load meets the specified criterion and generating an actual intermittent power supply contribution for the load based on the measured supply of power; and

when a shortfall exists between the measured supply of power from the aggregate intermittent power source to the load and the specified criterion, reallocating resources allocated to at least one of low-priority loads or no-priority loads so that the reallocated resources can be utilized to make up the shortfall.

2. The method as claimed in claim 1 , further comprising generating an updated forward probabilistic power supply profile based on the associated portion of the initial forward probabilistic power supply time profile being dedicated to the load.

3. The method as claimed in claim 1 , her comprising outputting a forward probabilistic intermittent power supply contribution for the load based on the associated at least respective portions of the initial forward probabilistic power supply time profile and the target demand time profile.

4. The method as claimed in claim 1 , wherein the probability is calculated based on an expectation value of a cross-correlation of the initial forward probabilistic power supply time profile and the target demand time profile.

5. The method as claimed in claim 1 , wherein associating the at least respective portions of the forward probabilistic power supply profile and the target demand time profile is based on a priority level of the load, the method further comprising dedicating a subset of intermittent power generating facilities of the aggregated intermittent power source to the supply for a highest priority load and generating the updated forward probabilistic power supply profile based on excluding the subset.

6. The method as claimed in claim 1 , further comprising validating one or more consumer constraints associated with the at least one load.

7. The method as claimed in claim 1 , wherein the aggregate intermittent power source comprises one or more intermittent power generating facilities connected to the power grid.

8. The method as claimed in claim 1 , wherein the specified criterion further comprises at least one cross-correlation among a secondary source and the load.

9. A system supplying power in a power grid, the system comprising:

means for determining an initial forward probabilistic power supply time profile of an aggregate intermittent power source connected to the power grid;

means for determining a target power demand time profile of at least one load connected to the power grid;

means for creating a synthetic probability model of consumption,

means for associating at least respective portions of the initial forward probabilistic power supply time profile and the target demand time profile such that a probability of supply of power from the intermittent power source to the load meets a specified criterion based on the synthetic probability model of consumption and comprising at least one of at least one percentage blend, at least one penetration ratio, and at least one correlation among a secondary source and the load;

means for determining whether a measured supply of power from the aggregate intermittent power source to the load meets the specified criterion and generating an actual intermittent power supply contribution for the load based on the measured supply of power; and

means for reallocating, when a shortfall exists between the measured supply of power from the aggregate intermittent power source to the load and the specified criterion, resources allocated to at least one of low-priority loads or no-priority loads so that the reallocated resources can be utilized to make up the shortfall.

10. The system as claimed in claim 9 , further comprising means for generating an updated forward probabilistic power supply profile based on the associated portion of the initial forward probabilistic power supply time profile being dedicated to the load.

11. The system as claimed in claim 9 , further comprising means for outputting a forward probabilistic intermittent power supply contribution for the load based on the associated at least respective portions of the initial forward probabilistic power supply time profile and the target demand time profile.

12. The system as claimed in claim 9 , wherein the probability is calculated based on an expectation value of a cross-correlation of the initial forward probabilistic power supply time profile and the target demand time profile.

13. The system as claimed in claim 9 , wherein associating the at least respective portions of the forward probabilistic power supply profile and the target demand time profile is based on a priority level of the load, the method further comprising dedicating a subset of intermittent power generating facilities of the aggregated intermittent power source to the supply for a highest priority load and generating the updated forward probabilistic power supply profile based on excluding the subset.

14. The system as claimed in claim 9 , further comprising means for validating one or more consumer constraints associated with the at least one load.

15. The system as claimed in claim 9 , wherein the aggregate intermittent power source comprises one or more intermittent power generating facilities connected to the power grid.

16. The system as claimed in claim 9 , wherein the specified criterion further comprises at least one cross-correlation among a secondary source and the load.