Method and apparatus for early detection of kicks

1. A well monitoring system, comprising:

a well;

a well system, the well system including at least one sensor measuring at least one well condition; and

a computing apparatus, including:

a processor;

a storage;

a bus system over which the processor communicates with the storage;

a data structure residing in the storage in which a set of real-time data acquired by the at least one sensor is stored;

a well monitoring software component residing on the storage that, when executed by the processor over the bus system, performs a method to detect a kick in a well, the method comprising:

storing the set of real-time data from a plurality of measurements of the at least one well condition by the at least one sensor into the data structure in the storage, the at least one well condition being correlative to an unplanned fluid influx into the well;

modeling an operation of the well with a physics-based, state space model of the well system to obtain an estimate of the at least one well condition;

accessing the set of real-time data from the storage; and

applying the set of real-time data accessed from the storage and the estimate of the well condition to a probabilistic estimator to yield a probability of an occurrence of a kick and a confidence measure for the probability.

2. The well monitoring system of claim 1 , wherein the at least one well condition is a downhole condition.

3. The well monitoring system of claim 1 , wherein the at least one well condition is a condition present in drilling ahead, tripping, or breathing.

4. The well monitoring system of claim 1 , further comprising:

assessing whether a corrective action is desired; and

implementing the corrective action;

wherein the assessing and the implementing are performed by the computing apparatus.

5. The well monitoring system of claim 1 , wherein the computing apparatus is distributed across a plurality of computers.

6. The well monitoring system of claim 1 , wherein the at least one well condition comprises mud pit volume, return flow, input flow, standpipe pressure, drilled depth, hook load, or gas content.

7. The well monitoring system of claim 1 , wherein modeling the operation of the well includes modeling the operation of the well using a distributed hydraulics model or a lumped parameter model.

8. The well monitoring system of claim 1 , wherein the method further comprises updating the estimate using the measurement.

9. A computer-implemented method to detect a kick in a well, the method comprising:

storing a set of real-time data from a plurality of measurements of a well condition acquired by at least one sensor during an operation of the well, the well condition being correlative to an unplanned fluid influx into the well;

modeling the operation of the well with a physics-based, state space model of a well system for the well to obtain an estimate of the well condition, the model being cyber-physically coupled to the well system;

accessing the set of real-time data that was stored; and

applying the real-time data set and the estimate of the well condition to a probabilistic estimator to yield a probability of an occurrence of a kick and a confidence measure for the probability of the occurrence of the kick;

wherein the storing, accessing, modeling, and applying are performed by a computing apparatus.

10. The computer-implemented method of claim 9 , wherein storing the set of real-time data includes buffering the real-time data.

11. The computer-implemented method of claim 9 , further comprising communicating the probability of the occurrence of the kick and the confidence measure.

12. The computer-implemented method of claim 9 , further comprising:

assessing whether a corrective action is desired; and

implementing the corrective action.

13. The computer-implemented method of claim 9 , wherein the computing apparatus is distributed across a plurality of computers.

14. The computer-implemented method of claim 9 , wherein modeling the operation of the well includes modeling the operation of the well using a distributed hydraulics model or a lumped parameter model.

15. The computer-implemented method of claim 9 , wherein modeling the operation of the well includes calling one or models from the well monitoring software component.

16. A non-transitory program storage medium, encoded with instructions that, when executed by a processor, perform a method to detect a kick in a well, the method comprising:

storing a set of real-time data from a plurality of measurements of a well condition acquired by at least one sensor during an operation of the well, the well condition being correlative to an unplanned fluid influx into the well;

modeling the operation of the well with a physics-based, state space model of a well system for the well to obtain an estimate of the well condition, the model being cyber-physically coupled to the well system;

accessing the real time data set that was stored; and

applying the accessed real-time data set and the estimate of the well condition to a probabilistic estimator to yield a probability of an occurrence of a kick and a confidence measure for the probability of the occurrence of the kick.

17. The non-transitory program storage medium of claim 16 , wherein the method further comprises:

assessing whether a corrective action is desired; and

implementing the corrective action.

18. The non-transitory program storage medium of claim 16 , wherein modeling the operation of the well includes modeling the operation of the well using a distributed hydraulics model or a lumped parameter model.

19. The computer-implemented method of claim 16 , further comprising updating the estimate using the measurement.

20. A computing apparatus programmed to perform a method. to detect a kick in a well, the method comprising:

a processor;

a bus system;

a storage with which the processor communicates over the bus system;

a well monitoring software component residing on the storage that, when executed. by the processor, performs the method, the method comprising:

storing a set of real-time data from a plurality of measurements of a well condition acquired by at least one sensor during an operation of the well, the well condition being correlative to an unplanned fluid influx into the well;

modeling the operation of the well with a physics-based, state space model. of a well system for the well to obtain an estimate of the well condition, the model being cyber-physically coupled to the well system;

accessing the stored real-time data set; and

applying the accessed real-time data set and the estimate of the well condition to a probabilistic estimator to yield a probability of an occurrence of a kick and a confidence measure for the probability of the occurrence of the kick.

21. The computing apparatus of claim 20 , wherein the method further comprises:

assessing whether a corrective action is desired; and

implementing the corrective action.

22. The computing apparatus of claim 20 , wherein the computing apparatus is distributed across a plurality of computers.

23. The computing apparatus of claim 20 , wherein modeling the operation of the well includes modeling the operation of the well using a distributed hydraulics model or a lumped parameter model.

24. The computing apparatus of claim 20 , the method further comprises updating the estimate using the measurement.