Congestion management apparatus and congestion management method

1. A congestion management apparatus comprising:

a memory configured to store, on a per-action-option basis, upper limits on numbers of users allowed to be guided to actions indicated by action options; and

a processor coupled to the memory and configured to

generate time-slot-based action options for a user of a terminal device in response to receiving a presentation request from the terminal device, based on a current time obtained from the terminal device and GPS position information obtained from the terminal device,

calculate, for each of the generated action options, choice probabilities of the action options with respect to the user, based on congestion levels, wherein the congestion levels are set based on road traffic information obtained in real time, and

calculate, for each of the action options, estimated numbers of previous users assumed to have selected the action options, based on choice probabilities of each of the action options with respect to the previous users,

wherein the processor is configured to extract from the memory, based on the upper limits and the estimated numbers for the action options, feasible action options specific to the user,

wherein the processor is further configured to

determine, from the extracted feasible action options, action options to be presented to the user based on congestion-reducing contribution levels obtained from the extracted feasible action options,

generate, from the extracted feasible action options, all patterns of action options to be possibly presented to the user,

calculate, for each of the patterns, products of the choice probabilities and the congestion-reducing contribution levels of action options to obtain a sum of the products,

determine action options included in a pattern having the largest sum of the products as the action options to be presented to the user, and

cause the terminal device to display the action options included in the pattern having the largest sum of the products in descending order of the choice probabilities of the action options.

2. The congestion management apparatus according to claim 1 , wherein the feasible action options extracted by the processor to be presented to the user are action options whose estimated numbers are less than the upper limits.

3. The congestion management apparatus according to claim 1 , wherein the processor is configured to calculate the choice probabilities of the action options, based on values indicating user satisfaction levels upon selecting the action options.

4. The congestion management apparatus according to claim 3 , wherein the memory is configured to store, on a per-user basis, user information used to calculate the values indicating the satisfaction levels.

5. The congestion management apparatus according to claim 1 , wherein the processor is further configured to calculate the congestion-reducing contribution levels based on the upper limits and the estimated numbers for the action options.

6. The congestion management apparatus according to claim 1 , wherein the processor is further configured to determine the action options to be presented to the user from the extracted feasible action options based on sales contribution levels obtained from the extracted feasible action options.

7. The congestion management apparatus according to claim 6 , wherein the sales contribution levels are calculated based on the time slot and presence or absence of monetary values, the monetary values being obtained from the extracted feasible action options.

8. The congestion management apparatus according to claim 6 , wherein the processor is further configured to

calculate, for each of the patterns, products of the choice probabilities and the sales contribution levels of action options to obtain a sum of the products.

9. The congestion management apparatus according to claim 1 , wherein the processor is further configured to determine the action options to be presented to the user from the extracted feasible action options based on the congestion-reducing contribution levels and sales contribution levels both obtained from the extracted feasible action options.

10. A non-transitory recording medium having stored therein a program for causing a computer to execute a congestion management process comprising:

generating time-slot-based action options for a user of a terminal device in response to receiving a presentation request from the terminal device, based on a current time obtained from the terminal device and GPS position information obtained from the terminal device;

calculating, for each of the generated action options, choice probabilities of the action options with respect to the user, based on congestion levels, wherein the congestion levels are set based on road traffic information obtained in real time; and

calculating, for each of the action options, estimated numbers of previous users assumed to have selected the action options, based on choice probabilities of each of the action options with respect to the previous users,

wherein the generating includes, by referring to a memory in which upper limits on numbers of users allowed to be guided to actions indicated by the action options are stored on a per-action-option basis, extracting from the memory feasible action options specific to the user based on the upper limits and the estimated numbers for the action options,

wherein the congestion management process further comprises:

determining, from the extracted feasible action options, action options to be presented to the user based on congestion-reducing contribution levels obtained from the extracted feasible action options;

generating, from the extracted feasible action options, all patterns of action options to be possibly presented to the user;

calculating, for each of the patterns, products of the choice probabilities and the congestion-reducing contribution levels of action options to obtain a sum of the products;

determining action options included in a pattern having the largest sum of the products as the action options to be presented to the user; and

causing the terminal device to display the action options included in the pattern having the largest sum of the products in descending order of the choice probabilities of the action options.

11. A congestion management method performed by a computer, the method comprising:

generating time-slot-based action options for a user of a terminal device in response to receiving a presentation request from the terminal device, based on a current time obtained from the terminal device and GPS position information obtained from the terminal device;

calculating, for each of the generated action options, choice probabilities of the action options with respect to the user, based on congestion levels, wherein the congestion levels are set based on road traffic information obtained in real time; and

calculating, for each of the action options, estimated numbers of previous users assumed to have selected the action options, based on choice probabilities of each of the action options with respect to the previous users,

wherein the generating includes, by referring to a memory in which upper limits on numbers of users allowed to be guided to actions indicated by the action options are stored on a per-action-option basis, extracting from the memory feasible action options specific to the user based on the upper limits and the estimated numbers for the action options,

wherein the method further comprises:

determining, from the extracted feasible action options, action options to be presented to the user based on congestion-reducing contribution levels obtained from the extracted feasible action options;

generating, from the extracted feasible action options, all patterns of action options to be possibly presented to the user;

calculating, for each of the patterns, products of the choice probabilities and the congestion-reducing contribution levels of action options to obtain a sum of the products;

determining action options included in a pattern having the largest sum of the products as the action options to be presented to the user; and

causing the terminal device to display the action options included in the pattern having the largest sum of the products in descending order of the choice probabilities of the action options.