Decoupled modeling methods and systems

1. A method of improving an energy parameter estimation, comprising:

storing power consumption data retrieved from a plurality of power systems into a power consumption database;

converting, via processing circuitry, the power consumption data into power activated time cycles and power non-activated time cycles;

calculating, via the processing circuitry, median time values of the power activated time cycles and the power non-activated time cycles for respective outdoor temperatures;

deriving a thermal resistance (R) parameter and a capacitance (C) parameter for a predetermined heat flow (Q) parameter at each of the respective outdoor temperatures for the plurality of power systems;

comparing, via the processing circuitry, the converted power activated time cycles to the actual power activated time cycles for the plurality of power systems;

comparing, via the processing circuitry, the converted power non-activated time cycles to the actual power non-activated time cycles for the plurality of power systems;

calculating a first improved resistance-capacitance-heat flow (RCQ) parameter set and a respective first outdoor temperature for the compared and converted power activated time cycles to the actual power activated time cycles;

calculating a second improved RCQ parameter set and a respective second outdoor temperature for the compared and converted power non-activated time cycles to the actual power non-activated time cycles; and

improving the energy parameter estimation by executing the first and second improved RCQ parameter sets at the respective first and second outside temperatures for each of the plurality of power systems, wherein the improving the energy parameter estimation identifies energy efficiencies to reduce a total energy load within said each of the plurality of power systems.

2. The method of claim 1 , wherein the improved RCQ parameter set is determined by minimizing an error between the converted power activated time cycles and the actual power activated time cycles, and between the converted power non-activated time cycles and the actual power non-activated time cycles.

3. The method of claim 1 , wherein the power consumption data is limited to data within a temperature range between a predefined upper limit temperature and a predefined lower limit temperature.

4. The method of claim 1 , wherein the method comprises an equivalent thermal parameter (ETP) model for improving the energy parameter estimation.

5. The method of claim 1 , further comprising:

calculating the Q parameter at each of the respective outdoor temperatures during the power activated time cycles for the plurality of power systems; and

calculating the R parameter and the C parameter at each of the respective outdoor temperatures during the power non-activated time cycles for the plurality of power systems.

6. The method of claim 5 , further comprising:

calculating, via the processing circuitry, an estimated duration of each of the power activated time cycles from the Q parameter calculated at each of the respective outdoor temperatures;

calculating, via the processing circuitry, an estimated duration of each of the power non-activated time cycles from the R parameter and the C parameter calculated at each of the respective outdoor temperatures; and

improving the energy parameter estimation to reduce errors corresponding to variations in said each of the respective outdoor temperatures by decoupling daytime parameters from night time parameters via the estimated duration of said each of the power activated time cycles from the Q parameter and via the estimated duration of said each of the power non-activated time cycles from the R parameter and the C parameter.

7. The method of claim 1 , further comprising:

calculating an R adjustment coefficient as a ratio of a whole-day R parameter to a night-time R parameter;

calculating a C adjustment coefficient as a ratio of a whole-day C parameter to a night-time C parameter;

calculating a Q adjustment coefficient at said each of the respective outdoor temperatures as a ratio of a whole-day Q parameter to a night-time Q parameter at said each of the respective outdoor temperatures; and

calculating an RC adjustment coefficient at said each of the respective outdoor temperatures as a ratio of a whole-day RC parameter to a night-time RC parameter at said each of the respective outdoor temperatures, wherein the whole-day R parameter, the whole-day C parameter, the whole-day Q parameter, and the whole-day RC parameter are calculated from data taken over a 24-hour period of time, and

wherein the night-time R parameter, the night-time C parameter, the night-time Q parameter, and the night-time RC parameter are calculated from data taken during an absence of solar exposure.

8. The method of claim 7 , further comprising:

calculating a daytime R parameter as a product of the R adjustment coefficient and a night-time optimum R parameter;

calculating a daytime C parameter as a product of the C adjustment coefficient and a night-time optimum C parameter;

calculating a daytime Q parameter as a product of the Q adjustment coefficient and a night-time optimum Q parameter at said each of the respective outdoor temperatures;

calculating a daytime RC parameter as a product of the RC adjustment coefficient and a night-time optimum RC parameter at said each of the respective outdoor temperatures; and

improving the energy parameter estimation to reduce errors corresponding to variations in solar exposure by adjusting night time parameters to be used as daytime parameters via the daytime R parameter, the daytime C parameter, the daytime Q parameter, and the daytime RC parameter.

9. The method of claim 1 , wherein the plurality of power systems includes a plurality of thermostatically controlled appliances (TCAs).

10. The method of claim 9 , wherein the plurality of TCAs includes a plurality of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, and the power consumption database includes an HVAC consumption database.

11. A decoupled equivalent thermal parameter (ETP) model processor, comprising:

circuitry configured to

store power consumption data retrieved from a plurality of power systems into a power consumption database;

convert the power consumption data into power activated time cycles and power non-activated time cycles;

calculate median time values of the power activated time cycles and the power non-activated time cycles for respective outdoor temperatures;

derive parameters for a thermal resistance (R) parameter and a capacitance (C) parameter for a predetermined heat flow (Q) parameter at each of the respective outdoor temperatures for the plurality of power systems;

compare the converted power activated time cycles to the actual power activated time cycles for the plurality of power systems;

compare the converted power non-activated time cycles to the actual power non-activated time cycles for the plurality of power systems;

calculate a first improved resistance-capacitance-heat flow (RCQ) parameter set and a respective first outdoor temperature for the compared and converted power activated time cycles to the actual power activated time cycles;

calculate a second improved RCQ parameter set and a respective second outdoor temperature for the compared and converted power non-activated time cycles to the actual power non-activated time cycles;

calculate the Q parameter at each of the respective outdoor temperatures during the power activated time cycles for the plurality of power systems; and

calculate the R parameter and the C parameter at each of the respective outdoor temperatures during the power non-activated time cycles for the plurality of power systems.

12. The decoupled ETP model processor of claim 11 , wherein the circuitry is further configured to:

calculate an estimated duration of each of the power activated time cycles from the Q parameter calculated at each of the respective outdoor temperatures; and

calculate an estimated duration of each of the power non-activated time cycles from the R parameter and the C parameter calculated at each of the respective outdoor temperatures,

wherein the calculated Q parameter, the calculated R parameter, and the calculated C parameter improve energy parameter estimation to reduce errors corresponding to variations in said each of the respective outdoor temperatures by decoupling daytime parameters from night time parameters via the estimated duration of said each of the power activated time cycles from the Q parameter and via the estimated duration of said each of the power non-activated time cycles from the R parameter and the C parameter.

13. The decoupled ETP model processor of claim 11 , wherein the improved RCQ parameter set is determined by minimizing an error between the converted power activated time cycles and the actual power activated time cycles, and between the converted power non-activated time cycles and the actual power non-activated time cycles.

14. The decoupled ETP model processor of claim 11 , wherein the plurality of power systems includes a plurality of thermostatically controlled appliances (TCAs).

15. An adjusted decoupled equivalent thermal parameter (ETP) model processor, comprising:

circuitry configured to

store power consumption data retrieved from a plurality of power systems into a power consumption database;

convert the power consumption data into power activated time cycles and power non-activated time cycles;

calculate median time values of the power activated time cycles and the power non-activated time cycles for respective outdoor temperatures;

derive parameters for a thermal resistance (R) parameter and a capacitance (C) parameter for a predetermined heat flow (Q) parameter at each of the respective outdoor temperatures for the plurality of power systems;

compare the converted power activated time cycles to the actual power activated time cycles for the plurality of power systems;

compare the converted power non-activated time cycles to the actual power non-activated time cycles for the plurality of power systems;

calculate a first improved resistance-capacitance-heat flow (RCQ) parameter set and a respective first outdoor temperature for the compared and converted power activated time cycles to the actual power activated time cycles;

calculate a second improved RCQ parameter set and a respective second outdoor temperature for the compared and converted power non-activated time cycles to the actual power non-activated time cycles;

calculate an R adjustment coefficient as a ratio of a whole-day R parameter to a night-time R parameter;

calculate a C adjustment coefficient as a ratio of a whole-day C parameter to a night-time C parameter;

calculate a Q adjustment coefficient at the respective outdoor temperature as a ratio of a whole-day Q parameter at the respective outdoor temperature to a night-time Q parameter at the respective outdoor temperature; and

calculate an RC adjustment coefficient at the respective outdoor temperature as a ratio of a whole-day RC parameter at the respective outdoor temperature to a night-time RC parameter at the respective outdoor temperature.

16. The adjusted decoupled ETP model processor of claim 15 , wherein the circuitry is further configured to:

calculate a daytime R parameter as a product of the R adjustment coefficient and a night-time optimum R parameter;

calculate a daytime C parameter as a product of the C adjustment coefficient and a night-time optimum C parameter;

calculate a daytime Q parameter as a product of the Q adjustment coefficient and a night-time optimum Q parameter at the respective outdoor temperature; and

calculate a daytime RC parameter as a product of the RC adjustment coefficient and a night-time optimum RC parameter at said each of the respective outdoor temperatures,

wherein the calculated daytime R parameter, the calculated daytime C parameter, the calculated daytime Q parameter, and the calculated daytime RC parameter improve energy parameter estimation to reduce errors corresponding to variations in solar exposure by adjusting night time parameters to be used as daytime parameters.

17. The adjusted decoupled ETP model processor of claim 15 , wherein the whole-day R parameter, the whole-day C parameter, the whole-day Q parameter, and the whole-day RC parameter are calculated from data taken over a 24-hour period of time, and

wherein the night-time R parameter, the night-time C parameter, the night-time Q parameter, and the night-time RC parameter are calculated from data taken during an absence of solar exposure.

18. The adjusted decoupled ETP model processor of claim 15 , wherein the improved RCQ parameter set is determined by minimizing an error between the converted power activated time cycles and the actual power activated time cycles, and between the converted power non-activated time cycles and the actual power non-activated time cycles.

19. The adjusted decoupled ETP model processor of claim 15 , wherein the plurality of power systems includes a plurality of thermostatically controlled appliances (TCAs).

20. The adjusted decoupled ETP model processor of claim 19 , wherein the plurality of TCAs includes a plurality of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, and the power consumption database includes an HVAC consumption database.