Control of tubular connections based on estimation of turns remaining

1. A method of connecting tubular components, comprising:

positioning a first tubular component at a surface location and engaging the first tubular component with a tubular connection system and a second tubular component to initiate a threaded connection, the second tubular component at least partially disposed in a borehole;

rotating the first tubular component relative to the second tubular component by the tubular connection system;

during the rotating, measuring at least one of:

a rotational position of at least one of the first tubular component and a component of the tubular connection system, relative to the second tubular component, and

a rotational speed of at least one of the first tubular component and the component of the tubular connection system;

measuring a torque applied to the first tubular component by the tubular connection system;

estimating a number of turns remaining to reach a target torque on the first tubular component; and

controlling, by a speed controller coupled to the tubular connection system, a rotational speed of the first tubular component based on the estimated number of turns remaining to connect the first tubular component to the second tubular component, wherein controlling the rotational speed is based on collecting historical data from one or more previous tubular connection processes, and controlling the rotational speed includes decreasing the rotational speed according to an exponential decay function derived from the historical data.

2. The method of claim 1 , further comprising, based on the measured torque reaching the desired torque, disengaging the rotary drive from the first tubular component, and deploying the first tubular component in the borehole.

3. The method of claim 1 , wherein controlling the rotational speed includes gradually reducing the rotational speed as a function of the estimated number of turns remaining.

4. The method of claim 1 , wherein estimating the number of turns remaining includes measuring a current torque at each of a plurality of sample times, measuring a total number of turns at each of the plurality of sample times, and generating a torque-turns curve representing a relationship between an amount of torque applied to the first tubular component and a number of turns performed by the rotating.

5. The method of claim 4 , wherein the number of turns remaining is estimated by fitting the torque-turns curve to a function.

6. The method of claim 5 , wherein fitting the torque-turns curve includes performing a linear regression or a polynomial regression.

7. The method of claim 1 , wherein controlling the rotational speed is initiated based on a ratio of the measured torque to the target torque being greater than a torque ratio threshold.

8. The method of claim 1 , wherein controlling the rotational speed is initiated based on at least one of: the number of turns remaining being less than a threshold number of turns, and a difference between the number of turns remaining and a number of turns already performed by the rotating.

9. The method of claim 1 , wherein the exponential decay function is weighted by applying a series of weight values to the exponential decay function.

10. The method of claim 9 , wherein controlling the rotational speed includes decreasing the rotational speed according to an exponential decay function derived from the historical data claim 4 , wherein each weight value of the series of weight values is calculated for a set of measurements at a set of sample times.

11. A system for connecting tubular components, comprising:

a tubular connection system configured to form a threaded connection between a first tubular component and a second tubular component by rotating the first tubular component relative to the second tubular component, the second tubular component at least partially disposed in a borehole; and

a control system coupled to the tubular connection system, the control system configured to:

during the rotating, measure at least one of:

a rotational position of at least one of the first tubular component and a component of the tubular connection system, relative to the second tubular component, and

a rotational speed of at least one of the first tubular component and the component of the tubular connection system;

measure a torque applied to the first tubular component by the tubular connection system;

estimate a number of turns remaining to reach a target torque on the first tubular component; and

control a rotational speed of the first tubular component based on the estimated number of turns remaining to connect the first tubular component to the second tubular component, wherein the rotational speed is controlled based on collecting historical data from one or more previous tubular connection processes, and the rotational speed is controlled by decreasing the rotational speed according to an exponential decay function derived from the historical data.

12. The system of claim 11 , wherein the control system is configured to, based on the measured torque reaching the target torque, disengage the tubular connection system from the first tubular component.

13. The system of claim 11 , wherein the control system is configured to gradually reduce the rotational speed as a function of the estimated number of turns remaining.

14. The system of claim 11 , wherein the control system is configured to estimate the number of turns remaining by measuring a current torque at each of a plurality of sample times, measuring a total number of turns at each of the plurality of sample times, and generating a torque-turns curve representing a relationship between an amount of torque applied to the first tubular component and a number of turns performed by the rotating.

15. The system of claim 14 , wherein the number of turns remaining is estimated by fitting the torque-turns curve to a function.

16. The system of claim 15 , wherein fitting the torque-turns curve includes performing a linear regression or a polynomial regression.

17. The system of claim 11 , wherein the tubular connection system includes a power tong system.

18. The system of claim 11 , wherein the control system is configured to initiate the control of the rotational speed based on a ratio of the measured torque to the target torque being greater than a torque ratio threshold.

19. The system of claim 11 , wherein the control system is configured to initiate the control of the rotational speed based on at least one of: the number of turns remaining being less than a threshold number of turns, and a difference between the number of turns remaining and a number of turns already performed by the rotating.

20. The system of claim 11 , wherein the exponential decay function is weighted by applying a series of weight values to the exponential decay function, each weight value of the series of weight values calculated for a set of measurements at a set of sample times.