Power generation planning device and power generation planning method
This power generation planning device, which carries out plan creation or plan adjustment for a power generation plan for a generator and a ship allocation plan for a transport ship for power generation fuel for the generator, is provided with: an adjustment range calculation unit that calculates an adjustable range and adjustment cost for generator management based on a power generation plan, and an adjustable range and adjustment cost for fuel management based on a ship allocation plan; and an imbalance countermeasure amount calculation unit that, under a constraint condition pertaining to the power generation plan and the ship allocation plan, creates a plan or calculates an adjustment amount for generator management and fuel management that optimizes a prescribed indicator within the adjustable ranges of the generator management and the fuel management.
1. A power generation planning device for generating or adjusting a power generation plan for a generator and a ship allocation plan for a ship transporting a power generation fuel of the generator, the power generation planning device comprising:
a processor; and
a memory storing instructions that when executed by the processor, configures the processor to:
calculate an adjustable range and an adjustment cost of generator operation based on the power generation plan, and an adjustable range and an adjustment cost of fuel utilization based on the ship allocation plan, and generate, as the adjustable range of the fuel utilization, a plurality of course candidates of a transport ship of a power generation fuel, each course candidate indicating an arrival location, which is different from a current arrival location, and an arrival time of the transport ship, which is different than a current arrival time, over an adjustment period,
calculate, as the adjustment cost of the fuel utilization, a transport cost of the power generation fuel in a case where each of the course candidates are selected, and
generate a plan of or calculate an adjustment amount of the generator operation and the fuel utilization that optimize an index within the adjustable range of the generator operation and the fuel utilization under constraints regarding the power generation plan and the ship allocation plan.
2. The power generation planning device according to claim 1 ,
wherein the processor is configured to extract, from the generator operation and the course candidate, the adjustment amount of the generator operation, the course candidate, and the transport cost that optimize the index under constraints regarding the power generation plan and the ship allocation plan including a fuel tank level condition regarding a fuel tank level of the generator.
3. The power generation planning device according to claim 2 ,
wherein the processor is configured to:
predict a change width of power demand from an original power generation plan on the basis of power demand prediction information, or construct, from past information indicating a prediction value of weather regarding transport of the power generation fuel and delay of the arrival time due to weather, a prediction model by learning a relationship between the weather and the delay, and predict a change width of the arrival time from an original ship allocation plan on the basis of the prediction model and sequentially updated prediction values of weather.
4. The power generation planning device according to claim 1 ,
wherein the processor is configured to generate, as the adjustable range of the fuel utilization, the plurality of course candidates by performing a combination of speed adjustment of the transport ship, change of the arrival location, and adjustment of the arrival time based on the change width of the arrival time in a course whose arrival time is estimated to change, and
evaluate each of the course candidates on the basis of a difference between the arrival time and an arrival time having the maximum delay in the change width of the arrival time, and extract a course least affected by the delay by the adjustment of the arrival time.
5. The power generation planning device according to claim 3 ,
wherein, the processor is configured to:
on the basis of the predicted change width of the arrival time, in a case where there is a possibility of arriving earlier than the arrival time in an original ship allocation plan, correct a fuel tank level of the generator at the arrival time with a fuel consumption amount of the generator for the amount of time arrived earlier than the arrival time, and
where there is a possibility of arriving later than the arrival time in the original ship allocation plan, correct the fuel tank level at the arrival time with a fuel consumption amount of the generator for the amount of time arrived later than the arrival time to evaluate the fuel tank level and evaluate a cost of speed adjustment corresponding to an arrival time at the next arrival location of the transport ship.
6. The power generation planning device according to claim 3 ,
wherein the processor is configured to:
calculate and store in advance the adjustable range and the adjustment cost of the generator operation and the adjustable range and the adjustment cost of the fuel utilization for each case of occurrence of an unexpected event, and
calculate and store in advance an adjustment amount of the generator operation and the fuel utilization that optimize the index within the adjustable range of the generator operation and the fuel utilization of the corresponding case under constraints regarding the power generation plan and the ship allocation plan for each case, and when the unexpected event actually occurs, display the adjustment amount of the corresponding case on a display unit and adjusts the generator operation and the fuel utilization on the basis of the adjustment amount.
7. The power generation planning device according to claim 3 ,
wherein at least one of the predicted power demand or the predicted change width of the arrival time, the calculated adjustable range and the calculated adjustment cost of the generator operation or the fuel utilization, and the calculated adjustment amount of the generator operation or the fuel utilization is displayed on a display unit.
8. The power generation planning device according to claim 1 ,
wherein each course candidate indicates an adjustment to a transport ship speed with respect to an initial transport ship speed in the ship allocation plan.
9. A power generation planning method for generating or adjusting a power generation plan for a generator and a ship allocation plan for a ship transporting a power generation fuel of the generator, the method comprising:
calculating an adjustable range and an adjustment cost of generator operation based on the power generation plan and an adjustable range and an adjustment cost of fuel utilization based on the ship allocation plan, and generating, as the adjustable range of the fuel utilization, a plurality of course candidates of a transport ship of a power generation fuel, each course candidate indicating an arrival location, which is different from a current arrival location, and an arrival time of the transport ship, which is different than a current arrival time, over an adjustment period;
calculating, as the adjustment cost of the fuel utilization, a transport cost of the power generation fuel in a case where each of the course candidates are selected; and
generating a plan of or calculating an adjustment amount of the generator operation and the fuel utilization that optimize an index within the adjustable range of the generator operation and the fuel utilization under constraints regarding the power generation plan and the ship allocation plan.
10. The power generation planning device according to claim 9 ,
wherein each course candidate indicates an adjustment to a transport ship speed with respect to an initial transport ship speed in the ship allocation plan.