System and method for seasonal energy consumption determination using verified energy loads with the aid of a digital computer
A system and method for seasonal energy consumption determination using verified energy loads with the aid of a digital computer are provided. A digital computer is operated, including: obtaining energy loads for a building measured over a seasonal time period; obtaining outdoor temperatures for the building as measured over the seasonal time period; verifying stability of the energy loads, including: evaluating the energy loads over time; and identifying at least one of one or more discontinuities and one or more irregularities in the energy loads based on the evaluation. Operating the computer further includes: determining a baseload energy consumption using at least some of those of the energy loads; calculating seasonal fuel consumption rates and balance point temperatures; and disaggregating seasonal fuel consumption based on the baseload energy consumption, seasonal fuel consumption rates, balance point temperatures, and at least some of the outdoor temperatures into component loads of consumption.
1 . A system for seasonal energy consumption determination using verified energy loads with the aid of a digital computer, comprising the steps of:
a digital computer associated with a power utility and comprising a processor and a memory that is adapted to store program instructions for execution by the processor, the processor configured to:
obtain energy loads for a building situated in a known location as measured over a time period;
obtain outdoor temperatures for the building as measured over the time period;
verify stability of the energy loads;
determine a baseload energy consumption using at least some of the energy loads whose stability was verified;
calculate fuel consumption rates for the building over the time period using lines in slope-intercept form, one of the lines associated with average fuel consumption for heating of the building over the time period and another one of the lines associated with average fuel consumption for cooling of the building over the time period, based on at least some of the energy loads whose stability was verified and which represent fuel consumption for purposes other than space heating and space cooling and further based on least some of the outdoor temperatures;
determine two balance point temperatures for the building by determining the outdoor temperatures above which energy consumption of the building deviates from the line associated with the fuel consumption for the heating of building and the line associated with the fuel consumption for the cooling of building;
disaggregate fuel consumption over the time period based on the baseload energy consumption, fuel consumption rates, balance point temperatures, and at least some of the outdoor temperatures into component loads of consumption, each of the component loads associated with groups of devices with similar load characteristics;
utilize at least one of the component loads for analysis of power consumption by customer base of the power utility, comprising assessing at least one of on-going and forecasted power consumption by the customer base; and
adjust power output of power generation equipment operated under a control of the power utility based on the analysis of the customer base power consumption.
2 . The system according to claim 1 , wherein verifying the stability of the energy loads comprises identifying irregularities and discontinuities in one or more of the energy loads and wherein the energy loads whose stability was verified do not comprise the irregularities and discontinuities, the processor further configured to plot the energy loads over the time on a graph, wherein the graph is used to identify the irregularities and the discontinuities.
3 . The system according to claim 2 , wherein only those of the energy loads that occurred before or after the discontinuities and irregularities occurred are used for the baseload energy consumption determination.
4 . The system according to claim 2 , wherein the energy loads are obtained using a smart electric power meter and a solar power meter.
5 . The system according to claim 4 , the processor further configured to:
determine using the solar power meter values for on-site power generation for the building as provided over the seasonal time period; and
adjust the at least some of those of the energy loads measured using the smart electric power meter that do not comprise the irregularities or discontinuities by adding to those energy loads the on-site power generation values that occurred at a same time as the energy loads, wherein the adjusted at least some energy loads are used for the baseload energy consumption determination, fuel consumption rates calculations, and the disaggregation.
6 . The system according to claim 5 , the processor further configured to estimate the on-site power generation.
7 . The system according to claim 2 , the processor further configured to:
identify days in the time period during which the building was less than fully occupied, wherein the at least some energy loads that do not comprise the irregularities or discontinuities and that are used to calculate the fuel consumption rates and balance point temperatures are not associated with the identified days.
8 . The system according to claim 1 , the processor further configured to generate temperature distributions from at least some of the outdoor temperatures over the time period, wherein the disaggregation is performed based on the temperature distributions.
9 . A method for seasonal energy consumption determination using verified energy loads with the aid of a digital computer, comprising the steps of:
operating a digital computer associated with a power utility and comprising a processor and a memory that is adapted to store program instructions for execution by the processor, comprising:
obtaining energy loads for a building situated in a known location as measured over a time period;
obtaining outdoor temperatures for the building as measured over the time period;
verifying stability of the energy loads;
determining a baseload energy consumption using at least some of the energy loads whose stability was verified;
calculating fuel consumption rates for the building over the time period using lines in slope-intercept form, one of the lines associated with average fuel consumption for heating of the building over the time period and another one of the lines associated with fuel consumption for cooling of the building over the time period, based on at least some of the energy whose stability was verified and which represent fuel consumption for purposes other than space heating and space cooling and further based on at least some of the outdoor temperatures;
determining two balance point temperatures for the building by determining the outdoor temperatures above which energy consumption of the building deviates from the line associated with the fuel consumption for the heating of building and the line associated with the fuel consumption for the cooling of building;
disaggregating-fuel consumption over the time period based on the baseload energy consumption, seasonal fuel consumption rates, balance point temperatures, and at least some of the outdoor temperatures into component loads of-consumption, each of the component loads associated with a groups of devices with similar load characteristics;
utilizing at least one of the component loads for analysis of power consumption by customer base of the power utility, comprising assessing at least one of on-going and forecasted power consumption by the customer base; and
adjusting power output of power generation equipment operated under a control of the power utility based on the analysis of the customer base power consumption.
10 . The method according to claim 1 , wherein verifying the stability of the energy loads comprises identifying irregularities and discontinuities in one or more of the energy loads and wherein the energy loads whose stability was verified do not comprise the irregularities and discontinuities, the processor further configured to plot the energy loads over the time on a graph, wherein the graph is used to identify the irregularities and the discontinuities.
11 . The method according to claim 10 , wherein only those of the energy loads that occurred before or after the discontinuities and irregularities occurred are used for the baseload energy consumption determination.
12 . The method according to claim 10 , wherein the energy loads are obtained using an electric power meter and a solar power meter.
13 . The method according to claim 12 , further comprising:
determining using the solar power meter values for on-site power generation for the building as provided over the seasonal time period; and
adjusting the at least some of those of the energy loads measured using the smart electric power meter that do not comprise the irregularities or discontinuities by adding to those energy loads the on-site power generation values that occurred at a same time as the energy loads, wherein the adjusted at least some energy loads are used for the baseload energy consumption determination, fuel consumption rates calculations, and the disaggregation.
14 . The method according to claim 13 , further comprising estimating the on-site power generation.
15 . The method according to claim 10 , further comprising identifying days in the time period during which the building was less than fully occupied, wherein the at least some energy loads that do not comprise the irregularities or discontinuities and that are used to calculate the fuel consumption rates and balance point temperatures are not associated with the identified days.
16 . The method according to claim 9 , further comprising generating temperature distributions from at least some of the outdoor temperatures over the time period, wherein the disaggregation is performed based on the temperature distributions.