System and method for incident detection with spatiotemporal thresholds estimated via nonparametric quantile regression

1. A system for incident detection, comprising:

a network including at least one detector for detecting events in the network;

a detection module capable of:

processing data from the at least one detector;

detecting, at a predetermined location over a predetermined time period, data for determining a plurality of decision variables for incident detection; and

detecting data corresponding to a decision variable at a particular time t;

a calibration module capable of calibrating a plurality of bands for the incident detection based on the plurality of decision variables, wherein:

the plurality of bands define thresholds that are time-varying for all measurement locations in the network; and

the thresholds are estimated using nonparametric quantile regression; and

a determination module capable of:

determining the plurality of decision variables over the predetermined time period;

determining the decision variable at the time t; and

querying whether the decision variable at the time t falls outside a band of the plurality of bands to determine whether an incident has occurred;

wherein the querying comprises comparing the decision variable at the time t with a time-varying threshold defined by the band at the time t;

wherein an alert is issued in response to a determination that the incident has occurred;

wherein the detection module includes at least one sensor performing the detecting;

wherein the sensor records occupancy at the predetermined location over the predetermined time period by recording a passage of each traveling element on the network over a fixed loop; and

wherein the alert is issued at a command center capable of responding to the incident.

2. The system according to claim 1 , wherein the determination module uses a same band of the plurality of bands to make a determination of an occurrence of a downstream incident and an occurrence of an upstream incident in the network.

3. The system according to claim 1 , wherein at least two thresholds respectively comprise upper and lower limits of a band of the plurality of bands and a width of the band is variable over time.

4. The system according to claim 1 , wherein the decision variables represent a shock in occupancy and an occupancy level at a time.

5. The system according to claim 4 , wherein the calibration module performs the calibration using a plurality of parameters, wherein first and second parameters are quantiles for shocks in occupancies, and third and fourth parameters are quantiles for occupancy levels.

6. The system according to claim 1 , wherein:

the comparing comprises determining whether the decision variable at the time t is less than or greater than a conditional quantile function for the decision variable to determine whether the incident has occurred.

7. An article of manufacture comprising a non-transitory computer readable storage medium comprising program code tangibly embodied thereon, which when executed by a computer, performs method steps for incident detection, the method steps comprising:

designating a plurality of decision variables for incident detection;

detecting, at a predetermined location over a predetermined time period, data for determining the plurality of decision variables;

determining the plurality of decision variables over the predetermined time period;

calibrating a plurality of bands for the incident detection based on the determined decision variables, wherein:

the plurality of bands define thresholds that are time-varying for all measurement locations in a network; and

the thresholds are estimated using nonparametric quantile regression;

detecting data corresponding to a decision variable at a particular time t;

determining the decision variable at the time t;

querying whether the decision variable at the time t falls outside a band of the plurality of bands to determine whether an incident has occurred; and

issuing an alert in response to a determination that the incident has occurred;

wherein the querying comprises comparing the decision variable at the time t with a time-varying threshold defined by the band at the time t;

wherein the detecting is performed by at least one sensor;

wherein the sensor records occupancy at the predetermined location over the predetermined time period by recording a passage of each traveling element on the network over a fixed loop; and

wherein the alert is issued at a command center capable of responding to the incident.

8. The article of manufacture according to claim 7 , wherein a determination of an occurrence of a downstream incident and an occurrence of an upstream incident in the network is performed using a same band of the plurality of bands.

9. The article of manufacture according to claim 7 , wherein at least two thresholds respectively comprise upper and lower limits of a band of the plurality of bands and a width of the band is variable over time.